16707 State Highway 180 #67 · Gulf Shores, AL 36542

$187,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Manufactured public records · 200 Days on market

Built 2019 4,530 sqft lot Est $175k · 7% over $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beach living without the price tag. This beautiful three bedroom two bath Hamilton Home delivers comfort, space, and modern finishes in a location that checks every box. The home sits in a quiet subdivision only minutes from Alabama’s white sandy beaches, shopping, dining, and the highly rated Gulf Shores schools. You are three miles from Hwy 59 and about a mile and a half from Mo’s Landing Public Boat Launch which makes it an ideal primary home, second home, or investment property. The open floor plan is made for hosting with a large living area and a chef style kitchen featuring country farmhouse finishes, modern Frigidaire appliances, and plenty of prep space. The master suit

Key facts

• Quiet subdivision
• 3 miles from hwy 59
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• QUIET SUBDIVISION
• 3 MILES FROM HWY 59
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• COUNTRY FARMHOUSE FINISHES
• MODERN FRIGIDAIRE APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 0.2% in Gulf Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#61 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Shores Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #63 of 627 statewide, top 10%, 1,062 students, 44% FRL); Gulf Shores Middle School (math 34% / reading 62%, grade C-, #29 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 589 students, 48% FRL); Gulf Shores High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 799 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1191 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.15%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,200
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16707 State Highway 180 #67	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,095 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$160	99
16707 Ft Morgan Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-1%)	7mo	$240,000	$222	84
16707 Ft Morgan Rd #8	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+4%)	3mo	$220,000	$193	82
16707 State Highway 180 #34	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+11%)	2mo	$189,900	$156	80
16707 State Highway 180 #66	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+11%)	4mo	$152,000	$125	78
16707 Lagoon Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,099 (+0%)	23mo	$185,000	$168	72
16707 State Highway 180 #35	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+11%)	2mo	$179,900	$148	72
16707 State Highway 180 #51	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	11mo	$219,000	$175	59
16707 State Highway 180 #44	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+11%)	12mo	$182,500	$150	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-22,992
• Equity at exit: $27,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,795
• Equity at exit: $16,168

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36542

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1191
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,667

Max offer price $187,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $187,000
3. 2026-01-07
   price $195,000
4. 2025-10-13
   price $209,500
5. 2025-09-18
   listed $214,000 Active
6. 2024-12-18
   listed $214,000 Active
7. 2019-06-28
   soldstatus $253,681
8. 2018-07-09
   soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 45% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable loss: −$1,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$468
• After-tax cash flow: $1,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Gulf Shores

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #8945

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Shores, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 18,906
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,906
• Household income: $79,639
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.95%
• Current HPI: 257.6494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.71%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+2571.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $187,000 BCAR
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $195,000 BCAR
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $209,500 BCAR
• 2025-09-18 Listed $214,000 BCAR
• 2024-12-18 Listed $214,000 BCAR
• 2019-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $253,681 Public Records
• 2018-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +45.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.