814 E 9th Ct · Panama City, FL 32401

$234,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Land · 132 Days on market

Built 2025 5,663 sqft lot $205/sqft · 5% above area Est $224k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home savvy investors, first-time home buyers, or a family looking to downsize. This New Construction home will be perfect for you. This home has been designed to maximize living space. A contemporary design, using LVP flooring throughout. The 9ft ceilings add to the modern design . This 3 bedroom 2 bath allows for a new start with this location being close to shopping, as well as downtown Harrison Ave night life and restaurants. A full Samsung appliance package brings great quality from the start. This gorgeous kitchen offers Quartz countertops, island for prep, single-bowl basin sink, soft close drawers, and fantastic lighting. Perfect for entertaining. The lot is privacy fenced in with a large double gate for toy access. Recessed lighting follows you throughout the home. The primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet, as well as a very nice double vanity in the primary bathroom. Enjoy the extra privacy the 6 ft fence provides, a large double gate opens to the alley for easy toy access. This home has charm for days and is priced right to sell. Enjoy the new construction added benefits of efficiency and being cost effective. Contact your favorite realtor today for a showing.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New construction
• Island for prep

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• LVP FLOORING
• FULL SAMSUNG APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• ISLAND FOR PREP
• SINGLE-BOWL BASIN SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Merriam Cherry Street Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 362 students, 72% FRL); Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 262 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $235k implies a 922% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,311 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,622
• List price: $234,999
• Delta: 5.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-50,014
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-71,338
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32401

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $218,696

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $-31	+0% $-113	+5% $-194	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-264	-5% $-188	+0% $-113	+5% $-37	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-53	base $-113	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 E 13th St Unit 1 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	23d	1	0.49mi
1114 Mc Kenzie Ave Unit 1 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,850	$2.10	23d	1	0.64mi
540 E 4th Ct Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	23d	1	0.71mi
388 Massalina Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	15d	1	0.80mi
329 N Palo Alto Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	15d	1	0.81mi
725 Sherman Ave Unit B Panama City, FL	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	23d	1	0.86mi
300 Mercedes Ave Unit 1523335P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$3,807	$3.19	23d	1	0.96mi
265 15th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,462	$1.51	15d	4	1.19mi
603 E 2nd St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	1.20mi
1525 Oak Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,200	$1.72	23d	1	1.24mi
400 E 19th St Unit A1 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	785	$1,095	$1.39	15d	1	1.30mi
316 Cherry St #24 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	860	$1,800	$2.09	15d	1	1.40mi
2002 Wilson Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,260	$2.31	15d	25	1.40mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,999 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $234,999 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,999 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,999 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,999 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,999 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $234,999 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,999 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $234,999 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $234,999 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $234,999 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,999 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $234,999 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,999 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,999 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,999 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,999 Active 111 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $234,999 Active 110 DOM
19. 2026-03-28
    price $239,900 1198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1198 chars)

    Welcome home savvy investors, first-time home buyers, or a family looking to downsize. This New Construction home will be perfect for you. This home has been designed to maximize living space. A contemporary design, using LVP flooring throughout. The 9ft ceilings add to the modern design . This 3 bedroom 2 bath allows for a new start with this location being close to shopping, as well as downtown Harrison Ave night life and restaurants. A full Samsung appliance package brings great quality from the start. This gorgeous kitchen offers Quartz countertops, island for prep, single-bowl basin sink, soft close drawers, and fantastic lighting. Perfect for entertaining. The lot is privacy fenced in with a large double gate for toy access. Recessed lighting follows you throughout the home. The primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet, as well as a very nice double vanity in the primary bathroom. Enjoy the extra privacy the 6 ft fence provides, a large double gate opens to the alley for easy toy access. This home has charm for days and is priced right to sell. Enjoy the new construction added benefits of efficiency and being cost effective. Contact your favorite realtor today for a showing.

20. 2026-02-09
    listed $244,900 Active 1198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1198 chars)

    Welcome home savvy investors, first-time home buyers, or a family looking to downsize. This New Construction home will be perfect for you. This home has been designed to maximize living space. A contemporary design, using LVP flooring throughout. The 9ft ceilings add to the modern design . This 3 bedroom 2 bath allows for a new start with this location being close to shopping, as well as downtown Harrison Ave night life and restaurants. A full Samsung appliance package brings great quality from the start. This gorgeous kitchen offers Quartz countertops, island for prep, single-bowl basin sink, soft close drawers, and fantastic lighting. Perfect for entertaining. The lot is privacy fenced in with a large double gate for toy access. Recessed lighting follows you throughout the home. The primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet, as well as a very nice double vanity in the primary bathroom. Enjoy the extra privacy the 6 ft fence provides, a large double gate opens to the alley for easy toy access. This home has charm for days and is priced right to sell. Enjoy the new construction added benefits of efficiency and being cost effective. Contact your favorite realtor today for a showing.

21. 2026-01-20
    historical
22. 2025-11-26
    price $249,900
23. 2025-11-08
    listed $250,000 Active
24. 2025-04-30
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,300
• After-tax cash flow: $-52/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,947
• Household income: $52,523
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.12%
• Current HPI: 290.3312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+943.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $239,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $244,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $249,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $250,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $201 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.