1071 Red Hill Rd · Kenansville, NC 28365

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 355 Days on market

Built 1998 0.92 ac lot Est $316k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Huge remodeld doublewide situated on 2 lots that total . 92 acre. All fenced in with chainlink fencing. Open floor plan. Central heat and air. Roof is only 5 years old. This home offers many amenities.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Central heat and air
• Chainlink fencing

Tags

• REMODELED DOUBLEWIDE
• 2 LOTS
• CHAINLINK FENCING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• 5 YEARS OLD ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($357/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#165 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Duplin County Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #153 of 178 in NC (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: B F Grady Elementary (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,093 of 1,410 statewide, top 78%, 869 students, 100% FRL); East Duplin High (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 861 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Duplin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duplin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $190k implies a 849% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,120 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,840
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1119 Red Hill Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-5%)	11mo	$300,000	$188	71
1025 Red Hill Rd	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+13%)	8mo	$190,000	$100	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-28,962
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,121
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28365

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $785/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 355 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 354 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 353 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 352 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 351 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 349 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 348 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 346 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 345 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 344 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 343 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 340 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 339 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 338 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 337 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 336 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 335 DOM
18. 2026-04-14
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-02
    status Active
20. 2026-03-31
    historical
21. 2026-03-26
    status Active
22. 2026-03-26
    historical
23. 2026-02-21
    status Active
24. 2026-02-20
    historical
25. 2026-02-16
    price $189,900
26. 2026-02-02
    status Active
27. 2026-01-31
    historical
28. 2025-12-02
    status Active
29. 2025-11-30
    historical
30. 2025-11-04
    status Active
31. 2025-10-31
    historical
32. 2025-08-05
    price $194,900
33. 2025-05-06
    listed $196,900 Active
34. 2004-11-09
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,557 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$772/yr (+$64/mo · 98.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$785
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$712
• After-tax cash flow: $1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duplin County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701200
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,900
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8052
• State rank: #153 of 178 in NC

Livability — Kenansville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #8881

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,008

Population outlook (Duplin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,701 people
• By 2030: 56,333 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 52,736 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 48,426 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 36,339 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 23,866 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 19% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duplin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.2% · R 64.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+22.1 2016: R+19.2 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.91%
• Current HPI: 168.7507
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+849.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $189,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $194,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $196,900 Hive MLS
• 2004-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $785 · +56.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.