2453 Aderholt Rd · Burnside, KY 42518

$190,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2002 ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home nestled in the country. Plenty of privacy. Deer visit daily, and drink from the stream. Lots of room for entertaining. Minutes from Lake Cumberland.

Key facts

• Lake cumberland
• Privacy
• Deer visit

Tags

• PRIVACY
• DEER VISIT
• STREAM
• LAKE CUMBERLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.0% in Burnside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#141 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #17 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,211 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.79%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $122,593
• Equity at exit: $171,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.50×
• Total profit: $345,832
• Equity at exit: $369,128

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42518

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $355	+0% $301	+5% $247	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $153	-5% $227	+0% $301	+5% $375	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $349	base $301	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 163-char remark
11. 2026-06-09
    listed $190,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$404/yr (+$34/mo · 32.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$125
• After-tax cash flow: $3,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County
• NCES district ID: 2104950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 39.69/100
• National rank: #3906
• State rank: #17 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burnside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,414 people
• By 2030: 65,828 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 65,972 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 65,108 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 61,647 · -5.8%
• By 2100: 53,613 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 16.9% · R 82.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -55.4pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+66.7 2012: R+60.5 2008: R+55.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 111.57%
• Current HPI: 360.0351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-28.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $190,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $262,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $264,900 ImagineMLS
• 2023-11-23 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2023-05-23 Listed $264,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+25.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,230 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.