30 Horton Pl · Buffalo, NY 14209

$449,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,022 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2020 2,242 sqft lot $223/sqft · at area comps Est $450k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Newer construction duplex built in 2020 offering approximately 2,022 square feet of living space in the City of Buffalo. This two-family property features a total of 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms across two stories, providing flexible living or investment opportunities. The home includes aluminum/vinyl exterior siding, a covered front porch and upper porch, and a private driveway for off-street parking. Interior systems include gas forced-air heat and central air conditioning. Situated on a 2,242 sq ft city lot in a residential N-2R zoning district within the Buffalo City School District. Convenient location near Delavan Avenue, local amenities, and public transportation. Ideal for owner-occupants or investors seeking a newer multi-family property in Buffalo.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Gas forced-air heat
• Upper porch

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UPPER PORCH
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• GAS FORCED-AIR HEAT
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• RESIDENTIAL ZONING DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $56/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $352k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,519/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 959% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $256k; list at $450k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $351,900 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $450,447
• List price: $449,900
• Delta: -0.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1034 Lafayette Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,910 (-6%)	12mo	$281,034	$147	67
244 Purdy St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,026 (+0%)	12mo	$145,000	$72	63
65 Waverly St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (-1%)	17mo	$90,000	$45	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.86% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $53,180
• Equity at exit: $174,117

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $248,322
• Equity at exit: $248,193

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14209

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 21.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,463/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$739
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,378

Max offer price $449,900

Occupancy floor 92%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2.5	$3,518
Total (2 units)			$3,519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Berkley Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2879	$1,250	$0.43	3d	1	0.41mi
28 Lonsdale Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2735	$1,725	$0.63	44d	1	0.69mi
740 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	14d	1	0.80mi
82 Butler Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2752	$1,300	$0.47	44d	1	0.81mi
552 Potomac Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2500	$2,200	$0.88	44d	1	0.82mi
569 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	12d	1	0.96mi
836 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.5	1982	$4,500	$2.27	44d	1	0.97mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	0.98mi
563 Humboldt Pkwy Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2004	$1,200	$0.60	23d	1	0.98mi
451 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1633	$3,305	$2.02	44d	1	1.11mi
40 Putnam St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	23d	1	1.13mi
217 Norwood Ave Apt 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,700	$1.80	44d	1	1.16mi
83 Baynes St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2550	$1,850	$0.73	14d	1	1.18mi
340 Bird Ave #202 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1505	$2,950	$1.96	10d	1	1.21mi
330 Bryant St Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	2224	$2,200	$0.99	20d	1	1.23mi
73 Inter Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2080	$1,300	$0.62	14d	1	1.24mi
11 Hoyt St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2848	$1,775	$0.62	14d	1	1.27mi
405 W Ferry St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2480	$1,500	$0.60	44d	1	1.28mi
139 Fordham Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,700	$1.17	23d	1	1.39mi
19 North St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$2,910	$2.23	10d	7	1.39mi
202 Summit Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	23d	1	1.40mi
161 16th St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 779-char remark

   Show marketing remark (779 chars)

   Newer construction duplex built in 2020 offering approximately 2,022 square feet of living space in the City of Buffalo. This two-family property features a total of 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms across two stories, providing flexible living or investment opportunities. The home includes aluminum/vinyl exterior siding, a covered front porch and upper porch, and a private driveway for off-street parking. Interior systems include gas forced-air heat and central air conditioning. Situated on a 2,242 sq ft city lot in a residential N-2R zoning district within the Buffalo City School District. Convenient location near Delavan Avenue, local amenities, and public transportation. Ideal for owner-occupants or investors seeking a newer multi-family property in Buffalo.

2. 2026-05-14
   price $449,900 779-char remark

   Show marketing remark (779 chars)

   Newer construction duplex built in 2020 offering approximately 2,022 square feet of living space in the City of Buffalo. This two-family property features a total of 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms across two stories, providing flexible living or investment opportunities. The home includes aluminum/vinyl exterior siding, a covered front porch and upper porch, and a private driveway for off-street parking. Interior systems include gas forced-air heat and central air conditioning. Situated on a 2,242 sq ft city lot in a residential N-2R zoning district within the Buffalo City School District. Convenient location near Delavan Avenue, local amenities, and public transportation. Ideal for owner-occupants or investors seeking a newer multi-family property in Buffalo.

3. 2026-03-23
   listed $484,271 Active 779-char remark

   Show marketing remark (779 chars)

   Newer construction duplex built in 2020 offering approximately 2,022 square feet of living space in the City of Buffalo. This two-family property features a total of 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms across two stories, providing flexible living or investment opportunities. The home includes aluminum/vinyl exterior siding, a covered front porch and upper porch, and a private driveway for off-street parking. Interior systems include gas forced-air heat and central air conditioning. Situated on a 2,242 sq ft city lot in a residential N-2R zoning district within the Buffalo City School District. Convenient location near Delavan Avenue, local amenities, and public transportation. Ideal for owner-occupants or investors seeking a newer multi-family property in Buffalo.

4. 2021-03-01
   soldstatus $255,500
5. 2011-12-28
   soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,533 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,070/yr (+$256/mo · 209.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,463
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,378
• − Management: −$3,378
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$6,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,567
• After-tax cash flow: $2,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 8,313
• Household income: $50,046
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Current HPI: 443.9414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.53%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1856.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $449,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $484,271 WNYREIS
• 2021-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $255,500 Public Records
• 2011-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+55.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,463 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.