11961 Noble Wood Village Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$242,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $151/sqft · 6% above area Est $229k · 6% over $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Pinehollow Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $243k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,410 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,515
• List price: $242,990
• Delta: 6.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11998 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,607 (0%)	1mo	$232,040	$144	96
11987 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,607 (0%)	1mo	$218,140	$136	89
11681 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+2%)	0mo	$266,990	$163	85
11677 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-2%)	0mo	$256,990	$163	85
11716 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+3%)	1mo	$238,990	$144	84
11688 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (+2%)	1mo	$262,490	$161	81
11708 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+9%)	1mo	$279,990	$160	74
11995 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	1mo	$215,340	$152	71
11990 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-12%)	1mo	$224,990	$160	71
12010 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-12%)	1mo	$213,040	$151	69
12039 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	0mo	$223,590	$158	65
11986 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	1mo	$222,440	$157	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $139,857
• Equity at exit: $218,905

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $389,409
• Equity at exit: $472,076

Cash invested: $68,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,645/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,167

Max offer price $242,990

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,748
• Closing costs: $7,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	43d	1	0.29mi
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $242,990 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 626-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,990 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,990 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,990 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,990 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,990 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,990 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,990 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,990 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,990 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,990 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,990 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,990 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,990 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $245,990 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2026-04-27
    price $245,990 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2026-04-17
    listed $285,990 Active 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    The Pinehollow Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2026-04-16
    listed $285,990 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,611
• − Property taxes: −$3,645
• − Insurance: −$1,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,345
• − Management: −$2,345
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,069
• Taxable loss: −$1,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$314
• After-tax cash flow: $2,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a good rehab level of 'cosmetic'. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value include painting, landscaping, new flooring, kitchen appliances, and lighting fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrades kitchen functionality and appeal
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrades kitchen functionality and appeal ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $245,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $245,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Listed $285,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $285,990 Zillow