3039 Holland Lakes Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$344,574

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 3039 Holland Lakes Drive FULSHEAR TX 77441 priced at 311990, the square foot and stories are 1778, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 58 days

🏗️ New construction. The $344,574 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $411,388.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-715 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James E Randolph El (math 79% / reading 73%, grade A, #70 of 4,322 statewide, top 2%, 1,078 students, 8% FRL); Seven Lakes J H (math 84% / reading 80%, grade A+, #7 of 1,662 statewide, top 0%, 1,630 students, 20% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 62% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Katy ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1802 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,376 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.45%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,388
• List price: $344,574
• Delta: -27.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3031 Holland Lakes Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+15%)	2mo	$314,990	$154	72
4239 Prairie Landing Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,822 (+2%)	8mo	$395,000	$217	57
4818 Rustling Cedar Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,894 (+6%)	21mo	$389,998	$206	39
4839 Rustling Cedar Ln	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,894 (+6%)	24mo	$414,998	$219	36
28938 Copper Ridge Drive Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,005 (+13%)	6mo	$419,000	$209	32
28802 Copper Ridge Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,021 (+14%)	18mo	$476,228	$236	30
4822 Rustling Cedar Ln	0.60mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,955 (+10%)	21mo	$399,988	$205	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-120,051
• Equity at exit: $61,339

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-193,515
• Equity at exit: $35,569

Cash invested: $115,189 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $417,500 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1802
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$514 /mo · $6,171/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,599

Max offer price $307,935

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-431	-5% $-573	+0% $-715	+5% $-857	+10% $-999
Rent	-10% $-928	-5% $-821	+0% $-715	+5% $-609	+10% $-502
Rate	-1.0pp $-508	-0.5pp $-610	base $-715	+0.5pp $-822	+1.0pp $-930

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,847
• Closing costs: $12,342
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27222 Fulshear Bend Dr Fulshear, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,779	$2.71	0d	99	0.77mi
28926 Yukon River Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,195	$1.08	84d	1	0.99mi
3702 Mirabeau Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5	1875	$3,974	$2.12	0d	1	1.16mi
5255 Prairie Terrace Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	3.0	1754	$2,000	$1.14	10d	1	1.16mi
27727 Halls Farms Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.5	2472	$2,556	$1.03	94d	1	1.17mi
3551 Shearwater St Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,500	$1.22	30d	1	1.24mi
3566 Blue Mockingbird St Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2365	$2,850	$1.21	30d	1	1.24mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Fulshear, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,292	$1.37	0d	14	1.25mi
3711 Daintree Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1892	$2,101	$1.11	115d	1	1.28mi
28126 Meadowlark Sky Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2275	$2,500	$1.10	4d	1	1.32mi
28100 Tamarron Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$2,287	$2.27	0d	48	1.34mi
5506 Amber Brook Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,350	$1.24	139d	1	1.35mi
4050 Andreas Meadow Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2197	$2,395	$1.09	41d	1	1.38mi
29418 Sydney Stone Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2571	$3,490	$1.36	37d	1	1.44mi
6106 Carver Pines Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2557	$2,459	$0.96	76d	1	1.45mi
29419 Emilys Rock Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2042	$2,699	$1.32	3d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Inframark community associationAnnual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageAttached garage parking
• Security: PrewiredSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionFull ownershipSlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026Living area approximately 1,778
• Construction: Brick, stone, and vinyl siding exteriorBuilt by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fencingLocated in a subdivisionCul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 15)Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10)Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)Bedroom on the first floor (9 x 11)Four total rooms
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersProgrammable thermostatENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heaterVentilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $344,574 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $344,574 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $344,574 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-09-17
   days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 97 DOM
5. 2026-09-16
   days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 96 DOM
6. 2026-09-15
   days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 95 DOM
7. 2026-09-14
   days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 94 DOM
8. 2026-09-13
   days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 93 DOM
9. 2026-09-12
   days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 92 DOM
10. 2026-09-11
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 91 DOM
11. 2026-09-05
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 85 DOM
12. 2026-09-04
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 84 DOM
13. 2026-09-02
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 82 DOM
14. 2026-08-31
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 80 DOM
15. 2026-08-29
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 78 DOM
16. 2026-08-28
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 77 DOM
17. 2026-08-27
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 76 DOM
18. 2026-08-25
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 74 DOM
19. 2026-08-24
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 73 DOM
20. 2026-08-23
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
21. 2026-08-22
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 71 DOM
22. 2026-08-21
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 70 DOM
23. 2026-08-20
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
24. 2026-08-19
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 68 DOM
25. 2026-08-18
    days on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 67 DOM
26. 2026-08-17
    statusdays on market $299,990 Active Under Contract 66 DOM
27. 2026-08-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 65 DOM
28. 2026-08-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 64 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    price $299,990 Active 63 DOM
30. 2026-08-14
    days on market $294,990 Active 63 DOM
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $294,990 Active 62 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $294,990 Active 61 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    price $294,990 Active 60 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 60 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 59 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 58 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 57 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 55 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 54 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $299,990 Active 53 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $313,990 Active 52 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $313,990 Active 49 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $313,990 Active 48 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $313,990 Active 47 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 46 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 44 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 42 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $309,990 Active 41 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    price $309,990 Active 40 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $313,990 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,044
• − Property taxes: −$6,171
• − Insurance: −$2,057
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,586
• − Management: −$2,586
• − Depreciation: −$11,968
• Taxable loss: −$16,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,861
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready single-family home in Fulshear, TX, is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in secondary bedrooms — Updates the flooring and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

B Composite school gradezoned avg 78/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James E Randolph El A TX #70/4,322 Nat'l #1,966/41,679 Middle Seven Lakes J H A+ TX #7/1,662 Nat'l #206/14,009 High Jordan H S A- TX #72/1,632 Nat'l #1,484/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulshear, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Inframark community associationAnnual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageAttached garage parking
• Security: PrewiredSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionFull ownershipSlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026Living area approximately 1,778
• Construction: Brick, stone, and vinyl siding exteriorBuilt by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fencingLocated in a subdivisionCul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 15)Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10)Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)Bedroom on the first floor (9 x 11)Four total rooms
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersProgrammable thermostatENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heaterVentilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-11 Price Changed $311,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-19 Listed $314,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $317,990 HARMLS