249 Girard Ave · Winslow, NJ 08004

$269,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 425 Days on market

Built 1969 0.46 ac lot Est $438k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3 bedroom expansive bi-level home located in beautiful Atco. Home features and oversized yard with mature landscaping, partially finished lower level and new AC unit. Property is conveniently located to major highways, shopping and highly rated schools.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Oversized yard
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• OVERSIZED YARD
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• PARTIALLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• NEW AC UNIT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• Recommended offer: $237k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Winslow Township School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #387 of 472 in NJ (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 425 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $269k implies a 2142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 425 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.61%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $438,416
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Girard Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	2,068 (0%)	1mo	$212,500	$103	99
125 Ebbetts Dr	0.48mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,994 (-4%)	7mo	$420,000	$211	51
119 Ebbetts Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,924 (-7%)	3mo	$255,000	$133	50
426 Washington Ave	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,090 (+1%)	10mo	$575,000	$275	45
109 Forbes Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,924 (-7%)	11mo	$408,500	$212	43
154 Beach Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,852 (-10%)	7mo	$421,500	$228	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,071
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $45,479
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08004

• Home prices YoY: -15.5%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,159/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,472

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Basswood St Berlin, NJ	3.0	3.0	2000	$3,350	$1.68	14d	1	1.37mi
40 Basswood St Berlin, NJ	4.0	3.5	1927	$3,100	$1.61	43d	1	1.38mi
73 Basswood St Berlin, NJ	4.0	3.5	1940	$3,250	$1.68	1d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-26
   price $269,000
3. 2025-08-05
   status Active
4. 2025-07-31
   historical
5. 2025-06-11
   price $279,000
6. 2025-05-27
   price $299,000
7. 2025-05-01
   price $309,000
8. 2025-03-05
   price $320,000
9. 2025-01-31
   listed $329,000 Active
10. 1986-09-28
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,159 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,929 · $494/mo
• Expected delta: +$769/yr (+$64/mo · 14.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$5,159
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,106
• − Management: −$3,106
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable income: $3,213
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$771
• After-tax cash flow: $6,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winslow Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3418060
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,254
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8057
• State rank: #387 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Winslow

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,946

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 507,964 people
• By 2030: 502,182 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 485,602 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 465,630 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 419,986 · -17.3%
• By 2100: 369,492 · -27.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 63.0% · R 35.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+36.6 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.00%
• Current HPI: 325.9847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+2141.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $269,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-05 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $279,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $309,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $320,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed $329,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,159 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.