417 Craven St · Durham, NC 27704

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1955 0.35 ac lot Est $175k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell, Beautiful lot! Eat-in Kitchen, Second bedroom used as dining/hair salon. huge landscaped yard. Perfect for adding a garden or maybe even a second home. Seller will make no repairs!

Key facts

• Landscaped yard
• Eat-in kitchen
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LANDSCAPED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-5; Lot approximately 0.35 acre
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) — garage faces front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story house; One level
• Construction: Block and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a house structure
• Exterior features: Covered front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($866/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,280 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 636 students, 83% FRL); Lucas Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #416 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 371 students, 70% FRL); Northern High (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #441 of 535 statewide, top 83%, 1,308 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 400 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,315 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,200
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
711 Old Oxford Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0	865 (+8%)	4mo	$115,000	$133	76
516 Craven Rd	0.20mi	2/1.0	768 (-4%)	11mo	$205,000	$267	74
3103 Dearborn Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	797 (-0%)	2mo	$135,000	$169	64
818 Belvin Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	748 (-6%)	5mo	$163,500	$219	64
617 Martin St	0.24mi	2/1.0	728 (-9%)	20mo	$218,000	$299	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-25,267
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,905
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27704

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $683/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,362

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $123	+0% $72	+5% $21	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $15	+0% $72	+5% $130	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $118	base $72	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 Craven St Unit B Durham, NC	1.0	1.0	610	$1,200	$1.97	25d	1	0.03mi
705 Piper St Durham, NC	3.0	1.0	1001	$1,500	$1.50	25d	1	0.37mi
3800 Meriwether Dr Durham, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,750	$1.94	15d	23	0.51mi
4018 Sudbury Rd Durham, NC	3.0	1.0	987	$1,600	$1.62	15d	1	0.52mi
4001 Meriwether Dr Durham, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,450	$1.60	25d	1	0.62mi
215 William Penn Plz Durham, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,595	$1.55	15d	28	0.84mi
3523 N Roxboro St Durham, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	891	$1,299	$1.46	25d	1	0.96mi
409 E Maynard Ave Durham, NC	2.0	1.0	775	$1,197	$1.54	25d	1	1.02mi
E Maynard Ave Durham, NC	2.0	1.0	775	$1,197	$1.54	15d	2	1.03mi
4801 Danube Ln Durham, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$1,855	$1.79	14d	13	1.22mi
410 Newsom St Durham, NC	2.0	1.0	840	$1,575	$1.88	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   remarks 196-char remark
3. 2026-06-14
   listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$793/yr (+$66/mo · 116.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$683
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$541
• After-tax cash flow: $1,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Durham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Durham, NC
• County: Durham County · 288,747 people
• City population: 288,747
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 40,102
• Household income: $69,668
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1280.0

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 23% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 19% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.91%
• Current HPI: 265.4178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.58%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $180,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $180,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $683 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.