1149 Del Rio Dr · Lavon, TX 75166

$314,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,791 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,000 sqft lot $176/sqft · 8% below area Est $341k · 8% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21192912 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Harper is designed for those who need extra space and versatility. This four bedroom, two bathroom home features an expansive living area, flowing seamlessly into a modern kitchen with a large island - perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is a peaceful retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a creative space.

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,906 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,474
• List price: $314,990
• Delta: -7.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1153 Del Rio Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (-9%)	1mo	$307,990	$189	79
1152 Del Rio Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (+10%)	1mo	$324,990	$165	76
128 Millwood Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-8%)	1mo	$289,990	$175	74
165 Winterwood Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,866 (+4%)	2mo	$389,900	$209	71
403 Sierra Rdg	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,791 (0%)	6mo	$304,990	$170	67
1035 Chestnut Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (+2%)	7mo	$318,362	$174	63
115 Wild Oak Gln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,857 (+4%)	5mo	$349,990	$188	61
816 Harrison Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,669 (-7%)	3mo	$300,000	$180	48
475 Sierra Rdg	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (+10%)	4mo	$314,990	$160	45
947 Hazel Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (-14%)	5mo	$284,990	$186	36
474 Yellowstar Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,059 (+15%)	7mo	$333,647	$162	34
946 Dahlia Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (-14%)	7mo	$284,990	$186	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-65,647
• Equity at exit: $46,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-75,552
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,689 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,982

Max offer price $281,466

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-123	+0% $-232	+5% $-341	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-338	+0% $-232	+5% $-125	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-152	base $-232	+0.5pp $-313	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,748
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1156 Del Rio Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,895	$1.14	25d	1	0.05mi
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	44d	1	0.56mi
964 Dahlia Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2062	$3,550	$1.72	8d	1	0.73mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	8d	1	0.79mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	44d	1	0.82mi
731 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2542	$2,400	$0.94	44d	1	0.82mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	13d	1	0.82mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	3d	1	0.83mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	16d	1	0.85mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	16d	1	0.87mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	44d	1	0.88mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	44d	1	0.88mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	25d	1	0.88mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	5d	1	0.89mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	8d	1	0.89mi
1244 Coneflower Pl Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2518	$3,600	$1.43	44d	1	0.89mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	44d	1	0.90mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	16d	1	0.91mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	44d	1	0.92mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	0.93mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	44d	1	0.94mi
718 Moonlight Pl , TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,595	$1.15	44d	1	0.95mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	44d	1	0.95mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	25d	1	0.95mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	44d	1	0.96mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	21d	1	0.96mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	7d	1	0.98mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	44d	1	1.00mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	44d	1	1.01mi
239 Tallgrass Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2394	$3,500	$1.46	44d	1	1.05mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	44d	1	1.07mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	13d	1	1.07mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	25d	1	1.18mi
500 Mustang Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	2280	$2,195	$0.96	25d	1	1.21mi
858 River Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	17d	1	1.24mi
865 River Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$2,400	$1.16	6d	1	1.24mi
872 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1237	$2,000	$1.62	8d	1	1.27mi
876 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2321	$3,550	$1.53	0d	1	1.28mi
888 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2071	$3,550	$1.71	0d	1	1.30mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,900	$1.21	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   MLS# 21192912 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Harper is designed for those who need extra space and versatility. This four bedroom, two bathroom home features an expansive living area, flowing seamlessly into a modern kitchen with a large island - perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is a peaceful retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a creative space.

2. 2026-04-02
   price $314,990 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   MLS# 21192912 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Harper is designed for those who need extra space and versatility. This four bedroom, two bathroom home features an expansive living area, flowing seamlessly into a modern kitchen with a large island - perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is a peaceful retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a creative space.

3. 2026-02-27
   listed $317,990 Active 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   MLS# 21192912 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Harper is designed for those who need extra space and versatility. This four bedroom, two bathroom home features an expansive living area, flowing seamlessly into a modern kitchen with a large island - perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is a peaceful retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a creative space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,644
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$3,077
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,581
• − Management: −$2,581
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,163
• Taxable loss: −$8,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,957
• After-tax cash flow: $-824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to the exterior and interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding and trim. — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Replace the carpet in the bedrooms. — Carpet can be outdated and should be replaced for a more modern look.
• Both Install smart home automation. — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding and trim. — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace the carpet in the bedrooms. — Carpet can be outdated and should be replaced for a more modern look. ↑
• Both Install smart home automation. — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $314,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $317,990 NTREIS