4 Lapin St · Billings, MT 59105

$46,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 255 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $55k · 14% under $770/mo HOA · 49% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

Key facts

• Manufactured home
• Open layout
• Built 2005

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• CHERRY CREEK COMMUNITY
• OPEN LAYOUT
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $770

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Single-story (above grade finished area listed)
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Landscaped lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Basement: none
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $47k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $47k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Billings H S (urban): math 29% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 116 in MT (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Skyview High School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #56 of 132 statewide, top 42%, 1,602 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $324 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.93%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,720
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Hartland St N	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	7mo	$35,000	$29	88
18 N Cavalier St. St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	17mo	$44,000	$36	80
6 Vandalay St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	18mo	$55,000	$45	78
12 Jubilee St St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	14mo	$69,500	$61	76
34 Jubilee St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	18mo	$51,500	$45	67
21 Lapin St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+14%)	9mo	$65,900	$48	62
20 Attika Street North	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,384 (+14%)	21mo	$65,000	$47	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $10,596
• Equity at exit: $6,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $59,960
• Equity at exit: $4,055

Cash invested: $13,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59105

• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$246
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$59 /mo · $704/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$770
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $46,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,725
• Closing costs: $1,407
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Hartland St N Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	13d	1	0.12mi
34 Jubilee St Unit 34JU Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,719	$1.58	43d	1	0.17mi
922 Yellowstone River Rd Billings, MT	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	13d	1	1.22mi
836 Yellowstone River Rd Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	43d	1	1.34mi
828 Yellowstone River Rd Unit 828YYR4 Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	925	$1,095	$1.18	43d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $770 · $9,240/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $46,900 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $46,900 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $46,900 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $46,900 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $46,900 Active 251 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $46,900 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $46,900 Active 248 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $46,900 Active 246 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $46,900 Active 245 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $46,900 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $46,900 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $46,900 Active 240 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $46,900 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $46,900 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $46,900 Active 236 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $46,900 Active 235 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    soldstatus Closed 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

18. 2026-04-13
    status Pending 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

19. 2026-03-18
    status Active
20. 2026-03-05
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2026-02-04
    price $46,900
22. 2025-10-21
    price $49,900
23. 2025-10-06
    listed $52,900 Active
24. 2025-03-10
    status Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

25. 2025-01-01
    historical 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

26. 2024-07-11
    price $415,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

27. 2024-07-01
    status Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

28. 2024-07-01
    historical 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

29. 2023-09-06
    status Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

30. 2023-08-22
    historical 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

31. 2023-06-09
    listed $450,000 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and find your sanctuary within The Overlook at Cedar Ridge. this is only remaining lot for sale, providing ample space for you to build your dream home. Each lot is meticulously planned to maximize privacy and capture the breathtaking vistas that surround you. Discover the perfect canvas to create your own personal oasis.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,627
• − Property taxes: −$704
• − Insurance: −$234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − HOA: −$9,240
• − Depreciation: −$1,364
• Taxable income: $1,736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$417
• After-tax cash flow: $1,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Billings H S
• NCES district ID: 3003900
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,863
• Composite: 31.93/100
• National rank: #5848
• State rank: #69 of 116 in MT

Livability — Billings

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1830

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Billings, MT
• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• City population: 147,124
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 35,480
• Household income: $78,014
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 788.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.00%
• Current HPI: 217.0836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.80%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-89.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Sold (MLS) — BMTMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — BMTMLS
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — BMTMLS
• 2026-03-05 Contingent — BMTMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $46,900 BMTMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $49,900 BMTMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $52,900 BMTMLS
• 2025-03-10 Relisted — BMTMLS
• 2025-01-01 Delisted — BMTMLS
• 2024-07-11 Price Changed $415,000 BMTMLS
• 2024-07-01 Relisted — BMTMLS
• 2024-07-01 Delisted — BMTMLS
• 2023-09-06 Relisted — BMTMLS
• 2023-08-22 Delisted — BMTMLS
• 2023-06-09 Listed $450,000 BMTMLS