20715 Nala Bear Dr · Hockley, TX 77447

$299,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,401 sqft lot 2-car garage $116/sqft · 19% below area Est $370k · 19% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Your New Beginning in Bauer Landing! This beautiful two-story brick home is the perfect match for first-time home buyers ready to put down roots. With 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, there’s space for everyone to spread out and enjoy. The bright, open-concept layout features a spacious family room, a private primary suite on the main floor, and a large game room upstairs surrounded by four additional bedrooms—ideal for kids, guests, or home offices. Step outside to your fully fenced backyard, perfect for weekend barbecues, playtime, or pets.

Key facts

• Nearby parks
• Two story brick home
• 5,401 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO STORY BRICK HOME
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• BAUER LANDING COMMUNITY
• NEARBY PARKS
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-365 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 4.0% in Hockley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2409 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,462 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,053
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -19.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21642 Carbonari Dr	0.40mi	5/3.0	2,637 (+2%)	2mo	$341,990	$130	74
21907 Gallagher Pines Ln	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,659 (+3%)	2mo	$309,999	$117	70
21634 Carbonari Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,393 (-8%)	2mo	$305,990	$128	60
19327 Licola Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,377 (-8%)	2mo	$352,990	$149	59
19315 Licola Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,377 (-8%)	2mo	$336,540	$142	58
19019 Cape Capasso Dr	0.40mi	5/4.0	2,837 (+10%)	2mo	$386,990	$136	58
22115 San Felice Dr	0.40mi	5/4.0	2,837 (+10%)	2mo	$450,785	$159	58
22239 Palladium Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,400 (-7%)	2mo	$294,897	$123	57
19303 Bellizzi Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,263 (-13%)	1mo	$340,990	$151	52
22143 San Felice Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,872 (+11%)	3mo	$395,990	$138	52
21622 Carbonari Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,233 (-14%)	2mo	$305,990	$137	48
20419 Barrel Run Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,217 (-14%)	2mo	$319,000	$144	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-78,942
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-126,570
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 196 active · 65 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $343,490 ($144/sqft)
• Median days on market: 145 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2409
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$636 /mo · $7,632/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,005

Max offer price $234,462

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-196	-5% $-281	+0% $-365	+5% $-450	+10% $-535
Rent	-10% $-566	-5% $-466	+0% $-365	+5% $-265	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-215	-0.5pp $-289	base $-365	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20722 Nala Bear Dr Hockley, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,100	$0.81	83d	1	0.01mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$2,079	$1.30	4d	7	0.15mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	98d	1	0.38mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	94d	1	0.40mi
20019 Epirus Shores Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2645	$2,499	$0.94	39d	1	0.58mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	39d	1	0.74mi
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	139d	1	0.83mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$3,070	$1.50	0d	1	0.93mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Bauer Landing Homeowner AssociationAnnual association fee of $545Community poolCurbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roofFull ownership
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionLGI Homes builder
• Exterior features: Fully fenced backyardSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Second-floor bedroom (15 x 11)Second-floor bedroom (15 x 11)Second-floor bedroom (15 x 9)Second-floor bedroom (14 x 9)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersKitchen open to family roomPrimary bedroom with private bathWalk-in pantrySoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower comboProgrammable thermostatInsulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room (second floor, 6 x 8)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-25
   days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-08-24
   days on market $299,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-08-23
   days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-08-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-08-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-08-20
   days on market $299,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-08-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-08-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-08-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-08-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-08-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-08-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-08-13
    days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-08-12
    days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-08-11
    days on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-08-10
    days on market $299,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-08-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 70 DOM
18. 2026-08-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 69 DOM
19. 2026-08-06
    days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
20. 2026-08-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
21. 2026-08-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
22. 2026-08-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 64 DOM
23. 2026-07-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
24. 2026-07-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-07-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 58 DOM
26. 2026-07-26
    days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
27. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
28. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
29. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
30. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
31. 2026-07-20
    days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
32. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
33. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
34. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
35. 2026-07-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
36. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 44 DOM
37. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
38. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
39. 2026-07-11
    days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
40. 2026-07-10
    days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
41. 2026-07-10
    price $299,000 Active 39 DOM
42. 2026-07-09
    days on market $309,000 Active 39 DOM
43. 2026-07-07
    days on market $309,000 Active 37 DOM
44. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,000 Active 36 DOM
45. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,000 Active 35 DOM
46. 2026-07-05
    days on market $309,000 Active 34 DOM
47. 2026-07-03
    days on market $309,000 Active 33 DOM
48. 2026-07-02
    days on market $309,000 Active 32 DOM
49. 2026-07-01
    days on market $309,000 Active 31 DOM
50. 2026-06-30
    price $309,000 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,632 · $636/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,632 · $636/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$7,632
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,440
• − Management: −$2,440
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$9,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,278
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,940–$38,820 screening

This well-maintained, two-story brick home in Bauer Landing is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It offers a bright, open-concept layout and a fully fenced backyard, making it ideal for families and first-time buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Bauer Landing Homeowner AssociationAnnual association fee of $545Community poolCurbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roofFull ownership
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionLGI Homes builder
• Exterior features: Fully fenced backyardSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Second-floor bedroom (15 x 11)Second-floor bedroom (15 x 11)Second-floor bedroom (15 x 9)Second-floor bedroom (14 x 9)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersKitchen open to family roomPrimary bedroom with private bathWalk-in pantrySoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower comboProgrammable thermostatInsulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room (second floor, 6 x 8)

Price history

+8.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $309,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-31 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-26 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Price Changed $303,900 HARMLS
• 2021-04-21 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2021-04-16 Price Changed $286,900 HARMLS
• 2021-04-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-10 Listed $284,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+83.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,632 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.