5200 28th St N #165 · Lealman, FL 33714

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 615 sqft · Manufactured · 399 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy your morning coffee or evening breeze from your elevated porch. Welcome to the sunny side of life in this beautiful NEW home. Luxury finishes and high end upgrades abound throughout this stylish 1 bedroom 1 bath home Custom credenza Murphy bed holds TV, is a comfy sleeping space for guests. Open concept living, dining area is wonderful for entertaining and great conversation. The kitchen features a custom countertop perfect for conversing with the chef. All high efficiency stainless steel appliances, farmhouse sink, refrigerator, dishwasher, built in microwave, upgraded cabinets. Mini split system provides the latest in cooling and heating technology. Pampered master bath with a large

Key facts

• Custom countertop
• Elevated porch
• Mini split system

Tags

• ELEVATED PORCH
• CUSTOM CREDENZA MURPHY BED
• CUSTOM COUNTERTOP
• MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• WALK-IN MASTER SHOWER
• SPACIOUS STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $99,900

Exterior

• Home design: Spec inventory unit; Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 5200 28th St N #165, St. Petersburg, FL 33714

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: 615 square feet living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.7% in Lealman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#83 in FL, #1,394 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 399 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 399 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.67%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $7,378
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $26,069
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33714

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 54th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	400	$1,025	$2.56	21d	1	0.30mi
3109 54th Ave N Unit 1/2 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	400	$1,025	$2.56	17d	1	0.30mi
3600 49th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$1,150	$1.69	3d	8	0.61mi
2807 41st Ave N Unit 3 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,600	$3.56	24d	1	0.65mi
4163 31st St N unit Unit D Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,490	$2.48	13d	1	0.66mi
3791 58th Ave N Unit 3 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$1,430	$2.86	17d	1	0.88mi
2730 37th Ave N Unit B St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	560	$1,590	$2.84	24d	1	0.94mi
5850 18th St N St Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	727	$1,300	$1.79	24d	2	0.94mi
5301 40th St N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,950	$2.71	1d	1	0.95mi
3733 42nd Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	608	$1,695	$2.79	24d	1	0.98mi
3201 36th Ave N Unit B St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	624	$1,500	$2.40	24d	1	1.01mi
4481 Crestwood Dr N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,950	$2.71	4d	1	1.02mi
5475 42nd St N Unit 1 St. Petersburg, FL	—	1.0	500	$1,400	$2.80	20d	1	1.09mi
3715 66th Ave N Unit B Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,475	$1.97	21d	1	1.18mi
3421 35th St N Saint Petersburg, FL	—	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	17d	1	1.21mi
3421 35th St N Unit A St. Petersburg, FL	—	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	24d	1	1.21mi
3725 18th St N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	16d	1	1.23mi
3316 31st Ave N St. Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$1,199	$1.45	2d	3	1.37mi
2848 30th Ave N St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	736	$2,150	$2.92	24d	1	1.38mi
2321 1/2 30th Ave N St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	680	$1,695	$2.49	24d	1	1.41mi
3160 36th St N #115 Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	610	$1,300	$2.13	1d	1	1.44mi
2846 30th St N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	736	$1,995	$2.71	4d	1	1.44mi
2027 30th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	680	$1,695	$2.49	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 399 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 398 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 397 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 396 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 394 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 390 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 389 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 388 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 385 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 384 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 382 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 381 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$927
• After-tax cash flow: $4,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lealman

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1394

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lealman, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 20,103
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,227
• Household income: $47,487
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 915.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -179.12%
• Current HPI: 399.6253
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.08%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B