2607 45th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$144,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1954 7,950 sqft lot Est $186k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 bedroom 2 bath is perfect for the first time home buyer or investment property. Recently freshened up to include a 30 year roof installed Dec 2019. The roof warranty will transfer to the new owner. This gem also includes a workshop for the handyman. Seller will provide a 12 month First American Home Warranty and the alarm system is transferable if the buyer(s) want it.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Modern appliances
• Massive backyard

Tags

• CLASSIC BRICK EXTERIOR
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• GRANITE-LOOK COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• MASSIVE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Has attached garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Composition roof; Built area above grade: 1,364
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard; Native plants; Wood fencing (fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wheelock El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 323 students, 92% FRL); Atkins Middle (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 542 students, 87% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 60% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $999 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,332 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.70%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,504
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 44th St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (+7%)	13mo	$199,000	$136	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,872
• Equity at exit: $21,545

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,191
• Equity at exit: $12,494

Cash invested: $40,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,521 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,705/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,321

Max offer price $144,500

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $199	+0% $159	+5% $118	+10% $77
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $98	+0% $159	+5% $219	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $195	base $159	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,125
• Closing costs: $4,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	46d	1	0.08mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$1,075	$1.64	16d	25	0.12mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	16d	23	0.22mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	16d	1	0.24mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	23d	1	0.26mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	0.32mi
2315 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	0.36mi
3006 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,150	$1.13	23d	1	0.40mi
3019 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	0.48mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	23d	1	0.51mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	46d	1	0.51mi
3105 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,375	$1.02	23d	1	0.52mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	46d	1	0.55mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	23d	1	0.55mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	46d	1	0.56mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	46d	1	0.62mi
2823 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,825	$1.06	46d	1	0.65mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	23d	1	0.67mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	46d	1	0.67mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	16d	1	0.71mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	46d	1	0.71mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	46d	1	0.77mi
3114 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	46d	1	0.77mi
1920 45th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	23d	1	0.78mi
1920 44th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$795	$0.57	23d	1	0.79mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	46d	1	0.83mi
3019 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1573	$1,500	$0.95	16d	1	0.89mi
3101 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1250	$999	$0.80	46d	1	0.90mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	46d	1	0.91mi
2211 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1293	$1,200	$0.93	46d	1	0.91mi
3007 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1353	$1,325	$0.98	23d	1	0.92mi
1718 43rd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,075	$0.57	23d	1	0.93mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	46d	1	0.93mi
2411 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.94mi
2430 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,450	$0.91	46d	1	0.94mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	23d	1	0.95mi
2613 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,500	$1.02	46d	1	0.97mi
3415 49th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,350	$0.96	46d	1	0.97mi
3417 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	46d	1	0.97mi
2518 30th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1558	$1,750	$1.12	23d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $144,500 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,500 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,500 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,500 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,500 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,500 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,500 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,500 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,500 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,500 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 687-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $144,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,094
• − Property taxes: −$2,705
• − Insurance: −$722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$4,204
• Taxable loss: −$389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$93
• After-tax cash flow: $1,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $144,500 LARMLS
• 2020-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-19 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2020-05-04 Listed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2013-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,705 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.