13941 E Montgomery Rd · Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$1,200,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,034 sqft · Land · 88 Days on market

Built 2026 1.00 ac lot $297/sqft · 13% below area Est $1376k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the 4034 floor plan & all it has to offer in this pre-designed custom home. The kitchen boasts luxurious finishes, such as, stainless steel WOLF appliances, upgraded 42'' upper cabinets w/ crown molding, ample countertop space & a large center island. The adjacent informal dining area provides a comfortable & convenient space. The great room is filled with natural light, CUSTOM Fireplace Accent Wall & a sliding glass door lets in even more. The homes boasts plenty of room for everyone w/ a guest living area w/ separate entry & a bonus/game room. The spa-like primary bathroom includes a BEACH ENTRY shower, dual-sink vanity, a soaking tub, & a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio. ESTIMATED completion in July/August.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Guest living area
• 4034 floor plan

Tags

• 4034 FLOOR PLAN
• UPGRADED 42 UPPER CABINETS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• CUSTOM FIREPLACE ACCENT WALL
• GUEST LIVING AREA
• BONUS GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-44k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $667k (44.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $583k (51.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $583k (51.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Sun Academy (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #208 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 322 students, 14% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 598 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.13M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $583,143 (51.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.16%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 17.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,375,992
• List price: $1,200,000
• Delta: -12.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-429,133
• Equity at exit: $178,924

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.01×
• Total profit: $-675,628
• Equity at exit: $103,754

Cash invested: $336,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 17.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,500 /mo · $18,000/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,225
• Net cashflow: $-3,686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,497

Max offer price $666,615

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,857	-5% $-3,271	+0% $-3,686	+5% $-4,101	+10% $-4,515
Rent	-10% $-4,147	-5% $-3,916	+0% $-3,686	+5% $-3,456	+10% $-3,225
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,082	-0.5pp $-3,381	base $-3,686	+0.5pp $-3,997	+1.0pp $-4,313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $300,000
• Closing costs: $36,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14006 E Mark Ln Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3072	$5,125	$1.67	9d	1	1.33mi
14006 E Mark Ln Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3072	$5,125	$1.67	1d	1	1.33mi
14214 E Gamble Ln Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.0	3346	$20,000	$5.98	45d	1	1.34mi
14010 E Desert Vista Trl Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3106	$5,500	$1.77	17d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $1,200,000 Pending 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-03-13
    listed $1,200,000 Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Discover the 4034 floor plan & all it has to offer in this pre-designed custom home. The kitchen boasts luxurious finishes, such as, stainless steel WOLF appliances, upgraded 42'' upper cabinets w/ crown molding, ample countertop space & a large center island. The adjacent informal dining area provides a comfortable & convenient space. The great room is filled with natural light, CUSTOM Fireplace Accent Wall & a sliding glass door lets in even more. The homes boasts plenty of room for everyone w/ a guest living area w/ separate entry & a bonus/game room. The spa-like primary bathroom includes a BEACH ENTRY shower, dual-sink vanity, a soaking tub, & a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio. ESTIMATED completion in July/August.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,219
• − Property taxes: −$18,000
• − Insurance: −$6,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,598
• − Management: −$5,598
• − Depreciation: −$34,909
• Taxable loss: −$67,347
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,163
• After-tax cash flow: $-28,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $1,200,000 ARMLS