218 Trickling Creek Rd · Leakey, TX 78873

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

1.48 ac lot $156/sqft · 18% below area Est $255k · 18% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**Country Charm!** This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is located on two lots, totaling just under 1.5 acres. This affordable manufactured home from the 1980s has been expanded to offer 1,344 square feet of living space. It features an open kitchen and dining area, handicap-accessible doors and shower, a propane range and water heater, as well as spacious front and rear decks-perfect for enjoying the beautiful country views. A new roof was installed within the last five years, and the home is equipped with gutters. Outdoors, you'll find covered parking with two carports, a storage building, and four 50-amp RV hook-ups. This oak-studded property also includes frontage on Trickling Creek, a seasonal creek. All utilities are in place, including a public water supply, a private septic system, telephone/Wi-Fi access, and a propane tank.

Key facts

• Storage building
• New roof
• 1.48 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN AND DINING AREA
• PROPANE RANGE AND WATER HEATER
• SPACIOUS FRONT AND REAR DECKS
• NEW ROOF
• STORAGE BUILDING
• FOUR 50-AMP RV HOOK-UPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (45.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (45.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 0.2% in Leakey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,432 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Leakey ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #673 of 1,141 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Real County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,502 (45.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.59%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,728
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -17.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,819
• Equity at exit: $94,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $45,432
• Equity at exit: $145,406

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78873

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,145 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $515/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,552

Max offer price $152,207

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $209,000 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,000 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $209,000 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    **Country Charm!** This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is located on two lots, totaling just under 1.5 acres. This affordable manufactured home from the 1980s has been expanded to offer 1,344 square feet of living space. It features an open kitchen and dining area, handicap-accessible doors and shower, a propane range and water heater, as well as spacious front and rear decks-perfect for enjoying the beautiful country views. A new roof was installed within the last five years, and the home is equipped with gutters. Outdoors, you'll find covered parking with two carports, a storage building, and four 50-amp RV hook-ups. This oak-studded property also includes frontage on Trickling Creek, a seasonal creek. All utilities are in place, including a public water supply, a private septic system, telephone/Wi-Fi access, and a propane tank.

16. 2026-05-18
    status Back on Market 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    **Country Charm!** This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is located on two lots, totaling just under 1.5 acres. This affordable manufactured home from the 1980s has been expanded to offer 1,344 square feet of living space. It features an open kitchen and dining area, handicap-accessible doors and shower, a propane range and water heater, as well as spacious front and rear decks-perfect for enjoying the beautiful country views. A new roof was installed within the last five years, and the home is equipped with gutters. Outdoors, you'll find covered parking with two carports, a storage building, and four 50-amp RV hook-ups. This oak-studded property also includes frontage on Trickling Creek, a seasonal creek. All utilities are in place, including a public water supply, a private septic system, telephone/Wi-Fi access, and a propane tank.

17. 2026-05-15
    historical 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    **Country Charm!** This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is located on two lots, totaling just under 1.5 acres. This affordable manufactured home from the 1980s has been expanded to offer 1,344 square feet of living space. It features an open kitchen and dining area, handicap-accessible doors and shower, a propane range and water heater, as well as spacious front and rear decks-perfect for enjoying the beautiful country views. A new roof was installed within the last five years, and the home is equipped with gutters. Outdoors, you'll find covered parking with two carports, a storage building, and four 50-amp RV hook-ups. This oak-studded property also includes frontage on Trickling Creek, a seasonal creek. All utilities are in place, including a public water supply, a private septic system, telephone/Wi-Fi access, and a propane tank.

18. 2026-02-05
    price $225,000 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    **Country Charm!** This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is located on two lots, totaling just under 1.5 acres. This affordable manufactured home from the 1980s has been expanded to offer 1,344 square feet of living space. It features an open kitchen and dining area, handicap-accessible doors and shower, a propane range and water heater, as well as spacious front and rear decks-perfect for enjoying the beautiful country views. A new roof was installed within the last five years, and the home is equipped with gutters. Outdoors, you'll find covered parking with two carports, a storage building, and four 50-amp RV hook-ups. This oak-studded property also includes frontage on Trickling Creek, a seasonal creek. All utilities are in place, including a public water supply, a private septic system, telephone/Wi-Fi access, and a propane tank.

19. 2025-11-14
    listed $235,000 New 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    **Country Charm!** This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is located on two lots, totaling just under 1.5 acres. This affordable manufactured home from the 1980s has been expanded to offer 1,344 square feet of living space. It features an open kitchen and dining area, handicap-accessible doors and shower, a propane range and water heater, as well as spacious front and rear decks-perfect for enjoying the beautiful country views. A new roof was installed within the last five years, and the home is equipped with gutters. Outdoors, you'll find covered parking with two carports, a storage building, and four 50-amp RV hook-ups. This oak-studded property also includes frontage on Trickling Creek, a seasonal creek. All utilities are in place, including a public water supply, a private septic system, telephone/Wi-Fi access, and a propane tank.

20. 1995-11-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $515 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,309/yr (+$276/mo · 642.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$515
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,099
• − Management: −$1,099
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$7,806
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,873
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leakey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827000
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,418
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #8855
• State rank: #673 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Leakey

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1432
• US rank: #24474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,498

Population outlook (Real County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,289 people
• By 2030: 3,225 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 3,093 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 2,948 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 2,678 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 2,196 · -33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 2% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Real

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.1% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -53.0pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+66.8 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+62.6 2008: R+53.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Current HPI: 149.7889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $209,000 LERA
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $225,000 LERA
• 2025-11-14 Listed $235,000 LERA
• 1995-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+23.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $515 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.