1222 Lincoln Ave · Toledo, OH 43607

$99,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1887 3,600 sqft lot $74/sqft · 23% above area Est $81k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 5-bedroom, 1.5-bath home on a corner lot in Toledo! This property offers a generous layout with plenty of living space and could be a great Section 8 property, making it an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers seeking an affordable home with strong rental potential. No seller financing.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1887

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $99k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.73%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,818
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 22.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1157 W Woodruff Ave	0.18mi	4/1.0	1,200 (-10%)	2mo	$4,000	$3	71
1501 Fernwood Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,259 (-6%)	1mo	$60,000	$48	65
1155 W Woodruff Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,205 (-10%)	5mo	$48,000	$40	63
1163 W Woodruff Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,193 (-11%)	5mo	$48,000	$40	62
916 Fernwood Ave	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,394 (+4%)	2mo	$150,000	$108	61
1141 Pinewood Ave	0.47mi	4/1.0	1,228 (-8%)	4mo	$48,000	$39	58
927 Norwood Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,439 (+7%)	4mo	$70,000	$49	57
929 Norwood Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (+8%)	4mo	$80,000	$55	55
1119 Indiana Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,218 (-9%)	1mo	$50,000	$41	52
2242 Auburn Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,241 (-7%)	3mo	$85,000	$68	52
1038 Pinewood Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,203 (-10%)	3mo	$89,000	$74	50
2026 Hawthorne St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,142 (-15%)	0mo	$65,000	$57	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $21,916
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $92,320
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43607

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $807

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1140 Palmwood Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1292	$1,500	$1.16	44d	1	0.31mi
1122 Pinewood Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,150	$0.74	14d	1	0.49mi
2117 Clinton St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,115	$0.89	44d	1	0.60mi
1420 Addington Rd Toledo, OH	5.0	1.5	1728	$1,500	$0.87	44d	1	0.96mi
960 W Delaware Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,050	$0.86	23d	1	0.97mi
2322 Upton Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.98mi
1436 Palmetto Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1678	$1,400	$0.83	23d	1	1.03mi
319 N Detroit Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1341	$845	$0.63	44d	1	1.12mi
915 Woodstock Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,100	$0.73	23d	1	1.13mi
401 W Bancroft St Toledo, OH	4.0	1.0	927	$865	$0.93	23d	1	1.16mi
1573 Jermain Dr Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1254	$1,195	$0.95	14d	1	1.37mi
2037 Alvin St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,175	$0.93	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $99,000 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Spacious 5-bedroom, 1.5-bath home on a corner lot in Toledo! This property offers a generous layout with plenty of living space and could be a great Section 8 property, making it an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers seeking an affordable home with strong rental potential. No seller financing.

17. 2026-02-20
    listed $109,000 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Spacious 5-bedroom, 1.5-bath home on a corner lot in Toledo! This property offers a generous layout with plenty of living space and could be a great Section 8 property, making it an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers seeking an affordable home with strong rental potential. No seller financing.

18. 2026-01-26
    historical
19. 2025-10-09
    price $18,000
20. 2025-09-15
    listed $109,000 Active
21. 2005-12-29
    soldstatus $18,000
22. 2005-05-23
    listed $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$308/yr (+$26/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,398
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,056
• After-tax cash flow: $4,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,469
• Household income: $41,335
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1157.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.58%
• Current HPI: 175.2772
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+371.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $99,000 NORIS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $109,000 NORIS
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $18,000 NORIS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $109,000 NORIS
• 2005-12-29 Sold (MLS) $18,000 NORIS
• 2005-05-23 Listed $21,000 NORIS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $928 · -19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.