Is 27294 Lookout Rd Unit W32 in Long Neck, DE a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 7.6% cap rate and $-250/mo modeled cash flow at a $200,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 27294 Lookout Rd Unit W32?

The modeled cap rate is 7.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,019/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C Composite 55.73

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +19.1/30.0
ARV discount +14.8/15.0
DSCR +6.0/10.0
1% rule +5.1/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Schools +3.1/10.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Manufactured-home adj. -4.8

$200,000

27294 Lookout Rd Unit W32 · Long Neck, DE 19966

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · Manufactured · 156 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2021 Good condition 3,920 sqft lot $91/sqft · 16% below area Est $239k · 16% under $2/mo HOA ↓ 12% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream beach retreat, perfectly designed for a large or blended family. This massive, 5-year-young home offers approximately 2,200 square feet of beautiful living space, featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 great rooms. The unique dual-living layout is perfect for entertaining guests while still allowing everyone to find their own quiet, private spaces to unwind. Located in a premier private community boasting the largest shoreline in the area, you will enjoy exclusive access to private beaches, docks, and the ultimate coastal lifestyle.

Key facts

Private docks
Brand-new deck
New landscaping

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (18.1% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
Recommended offer: $164k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.4% in Long Neck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 69/100 on livability (#30 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Long Neck Elementary School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #57 of 105 statewide, top 55%, 693 students, 0% FRL); Millsboro Middle School (math 24% / reading 42%, grade F, #14 of 36 statewide, top 37%, 771 students, 0% FRL); Sussex Central High School (math 23% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 40 statewide, top 59%, 2,039 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 1311 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 155d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,864 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.01% ✓
Cap rate: 7.56%
Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
DSCR: 1.20
GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $238,981
List price: $200,000
Delta: -16.31%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34776 W Harbor Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,696 (-23%)	1mo	$285,000	$168	64
34721 Ringbolt Ave #43248	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,852 (-16%)	0mo	$232,500	$126	54
34160 Huckleberry Ln #909	0.92mi	4/2.0	2,052 (-7%)	2mo	$259,000	$126	52
34082 Village Way	1.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (-4%)	2mo	$180,000	$86	51
28259 Sloop Unit E-129	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-20%)	2mo	$405,000	$229	50
35356 Sandpiper Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-18%)	2mo	$147,000	$82	50
34679 Ringbolt Ave #13834	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-25%)	1mo	$159,000	$96	49
33500 Marina Bay Cir	1.50mi	4/3.5	2,405 (+9%)	0mo	$524,900	$218	43
35386 Sussex Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-11%)	2mo	$138,000	$70	41
34608 Stem St Unit E-302	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,862 (-15%)	2mo	$309,701	$166	40
26612 Briarstone Pl Unit B44	0.83mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,788 (-19%)	0mo	$240,000	$134	33
33559 Windswept Dr #11201	1.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,853 (-16%)	2mo	$425,000	$229	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.2%
Equity multiple: 0.14×
Total profit: $-47,999
Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

IRR: -20.6%
Equity multiple: -0.09×
Total profit: $-60,999
Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 6 active · 5 under contract
Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $151,900 ($86/sqft)
Median days on market: 208 d
This list price: 83% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +26.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 19966

Home prices YoY: -6.4%
Active inventory: 1311
Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,019 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
Insurance: −$83
Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
HOA: −$2
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $163,864

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-112	-5% $-181	+0% $-250	+5% $-319	+10% $-388
Rent	-10% $-409	-5% $-329	+0% $-250	+5% $-170	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-199	base $-250	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $50,000
Closing costs: $6,000
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35829 S Gloucester Cir Unit 35829 Long Neck, DE	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	154d	1	0.77mi
35821 S Gloucester Cir Millsboro, DE	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,600	$1.69	12d	1	0.79mi
35821 S Gloucester Cir Millsboro, DE	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,600	$1.69	0d	1	0.79mi
35805 S Gloucester Cir Millsboro, DE	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,300	$1.10	184d	1	0.81mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Monthly land lease $920 with 99 years remaining
HOA & community: HOA fee $25 annuallyLocated outside city limitsPark: White House Beach

Exterior

Parking: Driveway
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric cooling and hot water
Home design: Manufactured home (double wide)Land lease ownership
Construction: Combination construction materialsFinished above-grade area approximately 2,200Year built per assessor
Exterior features: Property in a federal flood zoneAbove- and below-grade structures noted

Interior

Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingPropane (owned) heating fuelCentral air conditioningElectric hot water
Interior features: Estimated living areaNo basement
Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor

Listing history 50 events

2026-10-26

days on market $200,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $200,000 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $200,000 Active 154 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $200,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $200,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $200,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $200,000 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $200,000 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $200,000 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $200,000 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $200,000 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $200,000 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $200,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $200,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $200,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $200,000 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $200,000 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $200,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $200,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $200,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $200,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $200,000 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $200,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $200,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $200,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $200,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $200,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $200,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $200,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $200,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $200,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $200,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $200,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $200,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $200,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $200,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $200,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $200,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $200,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $200,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $200,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $200,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $200,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $200,000 Active 100 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,225
− Mortgage interest: −$11,203
− Property taxes: −$3,000
− Insurance: −$6,525
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
− Management: −$1,938
− HOA: −$24
− Depreciation: −$5,818
Taxable loss: −$6,221

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,493
After-tax cash flow: $-1,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,000–$33,000 screening

This 5-year-old single-family home is in excellent condition with a good exterior and interior. It offers a spacious layout and is located in a private community with access to private beaches and docks. The new deck and landscaping will significantly enhance its curb appeal and outdoor living space.

Value-add opportunities

Both New deck and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
Both Landscaping and driveway maintenance — Improves curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Long Neck Elementary School F DE #57/105 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Millsboro Middle School F DE #14/36 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Sussex Central High School F DE #24/40 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Indian River School District
NCES district ID: 1000680
Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
Median HH income: $53,838
Composite: 28.99/100
National rank: #6620
State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Long Neck

Score: 69/100
State rank: #30
US rank: #8720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Long Neck, DE
County: Sussex County · 248,853 people
Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
Population (ZIP): 35,884
Household income: $78,305
Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 248,853 people
By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -18.26%
Current HPI: 268.5609
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
State GDP YoY: —
F500 in state: 0

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-05-23 Listed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
2026-04-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2026-02-20 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
2025-11-05 Price Changed $239,900 BRIGHT MLS
2025-03-29 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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