27294 Lookout Rd Unit W32 · Long Neck, DE 19966

$220,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 3,920 sqft lot Est $328k · 33% under $2/mo HOA ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream beach retreat, perfectly designed for a large or blended family. This massive, 5-year-young home offers approximately 2,200 square feet of beautiful living space, featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 great rooms. The unique dual-living layout is perfect for entertaining guests while still allowing everyone to find their own quiet, private spaces to unwind. Located in a premier private community boasting the largest shoreline in the area, you will enjoy exclusive access to private beaches, docks, and the ultimate coastal lifestyle. The home is practically brand new, and with premium updates currently underway—including a brand-new deck, driveway, and landscaping&md

Key facts

• Private docks
• Brand-new deck
• New landscaping

Tags

• DUAL-LIVING LAYOUT
• PRIVATE COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE DOCKS
• BRAND-NEW DECK
• NEW DRIVEWAY
• NEW LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease $920 with 99 years remaining
• HOA & community: HOA fee $25 annually; Located outside city limits; Park: White House Beach

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling and hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Land lease ownership
• Construction: Combination construction materials; Finished above-grade area approximately 2,200; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Property in a federal flood zone; Above- and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (owned) heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.2% in Long Neck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#30 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 865 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.74%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34724 W Harbor Dr #5678	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,200 (0%)	10mo	$219,000	$100	76
34813 Rowlock Pl Unit E-65	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,268 (+3%)	7mo	$299,900	$132	71
34687 Stem St Unit E-151	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (+4%)	1mo	$410,237	$180	69
28170 Sloop Ave Unit E-5A	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-7%)	1mo	$410,000	$200	67
34407 White Heron Rd #529	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,104 (-4%)	2mo	$110,000	$52	62
34703 Sloop Cut Rd	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,077 (-6%)	8mo	$400,000	$193	61
34805 Rowlock Pl #50349	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-13%)	0mo	$200,000	$104	59
28240 Sloop Ave #53005	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,044 (-7%)	11mo	$285,000	$139	54
34514 Gunnel Rd Unit E-507	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,036 (-8%)	3mo	$355,337	$175	52
35656 Boat House Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,944 (-12%)	1mo	$220,000	$113	49
26908 Wood Duck Rd #611	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,036 (-8%)	1mo	$389,500	$191	49
34168 Indian Cabin Creek Rd #249	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,036 (-8%)	11mo	$303,076	$149	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,252
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,857
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19966

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 865
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,510

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $218	+0% $142	+5% $66	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-70	-5% $36	+0% $142	+5% $249	+10% $355
Rate	-1.0pp $253	-0.5pp $198	base $142	+0.5pp $85	+1.0pp $27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35829 S Gloucester Cir Unit 35829 Long Neck, DE	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	14d	1	0.77mi
35805 S Gloucester Cir Millsboro, DE	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,300	$1.10	44d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $220,000 Active
16. 2026-04-19
    historical
17. 2026-02-20
    price $199,900
18. 2025-11-05
    price $239,900
19. 2025-03-29
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$6,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,583
• − Management: −$2,583
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$373
• After-tax cash flow: $2,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 5-year-old single-family home is in excellent condition with a good exterior and interior. It offers a spacious layout and is located in a private community with access to private beaches and docks. The new deck and landscaping will significantly enhance its curb appeal and outdoor living space.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New deck and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both Landscaping and driveway maintenance — Improves curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New deck and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Landscaping and driveway maintenance — Improves curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Long Neck

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #8720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Long Neck, DE
• County: Sussex County · 82,708 people
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 35,884
• Household income: $78,305
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.26%
• Current HPI: 268.5609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $239,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-29 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS