The Oriole Plan · Tomball, TX 77354

$266,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily · 953 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The beautiful Oriole plan makes great use of space with all bedrooms situated on the second floor leaving the first floor open for the whole family. The formal entryway leads into the spacious family room that also opens to the breezy kitchen/dining area. The generous second story game room is the perfect play space for adults and kids alike and can be converted into a fourth bedroom. A private third bathroom on the second floor extends the third bedroom and creates a second en-suite, if desired. Choose from two different sized covered patios for all of your outdoor gatherings.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 953 days

🏗️ New construction. The $266,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,264.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $267k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,886 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,264
• List price: $266,990
• Delta: -9.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27237 Crevalle Jack Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+2%)	2mo	$275,000	$131	83
27286 Axis Deer Trl	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,988 (-4%)	6mo	$300,142	$151	80
27310 Axis Deer Trl	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,988 (-4%)	6mo	$281,231	$141	78
10216 Longhorn Ridge Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,988 (-4%)	4mo	$320,142	$161	77
27146 Grey Fox Run	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,948 (-6%)	4mo	$299,000	$153	76
27207 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,988 (-4%)	3mo	$317,254	$160	76
10236 Badger Run Ln	0.43mi	3/2.5	2,061 (-0%)	6mo	$289,990	$141	75
27278 Axis Deer Trl	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-10%)	4mo	$299,635	$161	72
27314 Axis Deer Trl	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-10%)	6mo	$297,525	$159	68
10280 Badger Run Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,173 (+5%)	7mo	$305,510	$141	59
10155 Red Snapper Rd	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,860 (-10%)	6mo	$283,416	$152	58
10256 Badger Run Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,918 (-7%)	8mo	$292,455	$152	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $130,868
• Equity at exit: $265,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $394,250
• Equity at exit: $571,691

Cash invested: $82,394 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,543
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,414/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,574

Max offer price $239,930

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,566
• Closing costs: $8,828
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	2d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,990 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $266,990 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $266,990 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $266,990 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $266,990 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $266,990 Active 944 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $266,990 Active 943 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $266,990 Active 942 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $266,990 Active 939 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $266,990 Active 938 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $266,990 Active 937 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $266,990 Active 936 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $266,990 Active 935 DOM
14. 2024-04-27
    price $266,990 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    The beautiful Oriole plan makes great use of space with all bedrooms situated on the second floor leaving the first floor open for the whole family. The formal entryway leads into the spacious family room that also opens to the breezy kitchen/dining area. The generous second story game room is the perfect play space for adults and kids alike and can be converted into a fourth bedroom. A private third bathroom on the second floor extends the third bedroom and creates a second en-suite, if desired. Choose from two different sized covered patios for all of your outdoor gatherings.

15. 2024-04-01
    price $262,990 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    The beautiful Oriole plan makes great use of space with all bedrooms situated on the second floor leaving the first floor open for the whole family. The formal entryway leads into the spacious family room that also opens to the breezy kitchen/dining area. The generous second story game room is the perfect play space for adults and kids alike and can be converted into a fourth bedroom. A private third bathroom on the second floor extends the third bedroom and creates a second en-suite, if desired. Choose from two different sized covered patios for all of your outdoor gatherings.

16. 2024-03-04
    price $259,990 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    The beautiful Oriole plan makes great use of space with all bedrooms situated on the second floor leaving the first floor open for the whole family. The formal entryway leads into the spacious family room that also opens to the breezy kitchen/dining area. The generous second story game room is the perfect play space for adults and kids alike and can be converted into a fourth bedroom. A private third bathroom on the second floor extends the third bedroom and creates a second en-suite, if desired. Choose from two different sized covered patios for all of your outdoor gatherings.

17. 2024-02-01
    price $257,990 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    The beautiful Oriole plan makes great use of space with all bedrooms situated on the second floor leaving the first floor open for the whole family. The formal entryway leads into the spacious family room that also opens to the breezy kitchen/dining area. The generous second story game room is the perfect play space for adults and kids alike and can be converted into a fourth bedroom. A private third bathroom on the second floor extends the third bedroom and creates a second en-suite, if desired. Choose from two different sized covered patios for all of your outdoor gatherings.

18. 2023-11-20
    price $254,990 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    The beautiful Oriole plan makes great use of space with all bedrooms situated on the second floor leaving the first floor open for the whole family. The formal entryway leads into the spacious family room that also opens to the breezy kitchen/dining area. The generous second story game room is the perfect play space for adults and kids alike and can be converted into a fourth bedroom. A private third bathroom on the second floor extends the third bedroom and creates a second en-suite, if desired. Choose from two different sized covered patios for all of your outdoor gatherings.

19. 2023-11-08
    listed $274,990 Active 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    The beautiful Oriole plan makes great use of space with all bedrooms situated on the second floor leaving the first floor open for the whole family. The formal entryway leads into the spacious family room that also opens to the breezy kitchen/dining area. The generous second story game room is the perfect play space for adults and kids alike and can be converted into a fourth bedroom. A private third bathroom on the second floor extends the third bedroom and creates a second en-suite, if desired. Choose from two different sized covered patios for all of your outdoor gatherings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,483
• − Property taxes: −$4,414
• − Insurance: −$1,471
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − Depreciation: −$8,560
• Taxable loss: −$9,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,345
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-27 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $262,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-01 Price Changed $257,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $274,990 Zillow