214 S Caldwell St · Falfurrias, TX 78355

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Est $119k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

super cute inside- big lot, walking distance to grocery store

Key facts

• Big lot
• Listed 37 days

Tags

• BIG LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#242 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brooks County ISD (town): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #776 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $885 of equity ($519 loan paydown + $366 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.41%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,710
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 W San Saba St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,346 (+2%)	6mo	$115,000	$85	81
413 W Bennett St	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,376 (+4%)	7mo	$59,900	$44	69
607 W Miller St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-6%)	16mo	$129,000	$104	55
332 W Potts St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+6%)	2mo	$125,000	$90	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $16,833
• Equity at exit: $23,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $49,042
• Equity at exit: $29,924

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78355

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $825

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $75,000 Active 61-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$112/yr (+$9/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AO · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$1,843
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,120
• − Management: −$1,120
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$546
• After-tax cash flow: $2,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brooks County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811580
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $23,562
• Composite: 17.44/100
• National rank: #9064
• State rank: #776 of 826 in TX

Livability — Falfurrias

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #242
• US rank: #5822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falfurrias, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,843

Population outlook (Brooks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,122 people
• By 2030: 7,090 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 7,023 · -1.4%
• By 2050: 6,954 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 6,413 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 5,296 · -25.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 91% Two or more races 38% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 70%

Political lean MEDSL · Brooks

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.6) · D 54.5% · R 44.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.0pp toward R · 2008: 51.6pp · 2024: 9.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.6 2020: D+19.0 2016: D+51.0 2012: D+57.4 2008: D+51.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Current HPI: 78.6241
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,260 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.