1173 Deer Run · Tobyhanna, PA 18350

$499,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1982 0.29 ac lot $230/sqft · 9% below area Est $550k · 9% under $88/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1173 Deer Run, this 2,000+ sq ft retreat offers one of the best values in the community, blending space, style, and an unbeatable location just a short stroll to the lake and beach. With over 2,100 sq ft, this thoughtfully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home--plus bonus room and loft--delivers the kind of flexibility that's hard to come by at this price point. Whether you're hosting a full house or carving out a peaceful escape, every space is designed for both connection and comfort. The open, airy layout flows effortlessly onto an expansive deck--your go-to spot for summer nights, morning coffee, and après-lake lounging. Inside, recent upgrades including a modernized kitchen, refreshed baths, and new mini-split heating and cooling systems make this a true move-in-ready retreat. Just a 5-minute walk brings you to the lake, where you'll unlock access to all that makes Lake Naomi one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities--beaches, pools, golf, tennis, clubhouse dining, a fitness center, and year-round recreation. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway, a smart investment, or a full-time escape, this home is that rare find--a hidden gem that delivers on space, location, and lifestyle. Opportunities at this size and price point in Lake Naomi are limited--schedule your showing and see the difference for yourself.

Key facts

• Access to lakes
• Access to pools
• Access to beaches

Tags

• 5 MINUTE WALK TO LAKE
• ACCESS TO CLUBHOUSE DINING
• ACCESS TO LAKES
• ACCESS TO BEACHES
• ACCESS TO POOLS
• ACCESS TO TENNIS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-444 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $422k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $380k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $380,000 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $550,228
• List price: $499,999
• Delta: -9.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1173 Deer Run	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,172 (0%)	12mo	$450,000	$207	90
123 Winding Hill Rd	0.25mi	3/3.0	2,136 (-2%)	9mo	$562,000	$263	74
259 Little Pond Cir	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,240 (+3%)	2mo	$450,000	$201	72
127 Winding Hill Rd	0.24mi	3/2.5	2,101 (-3%)	16mo	$528,000	$251	68
5528 Fox Run	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,072 (-5%)	14mo	$420,030	$203	61
1233 Clear Pond Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-12%)	16mo	$449,900	$236	61
5515 Fox Run Rd	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,248 (+4%)	11mo	$574,900	$256	59
187 Tanglewood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,294 (+6%)	7mo	$870,000	$379	57
181 Long View Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,074 (-4%)	2mo	$625,000	$301	57
174 Miller Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,065 (-5%)	14mo	$600,000	$291	48
4202 Hemlock Trl	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (-13%)	1mo	$590,000	$312	46
1125 Cedar Knoll Way	0.67mi	3/3.0	2,372 (+9%)	13mo	$571,000	$241	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-109,240
• Equity at exit: $74,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-131,318
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18350

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,330/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $-444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,362

Max offer price $421,587

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2236 Hillcrest Dr Pocono Pines, PA	3.0	2.5	2068	$3,800	$1.84	44d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,999 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $499,999 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-03-24
   price $499,999 1359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1359 chars)

   Welcome to 1173 Deer Run, this 2,000+ sq ft retreat offers one of the best values in the community, blending space, style, and an unbeatable location just a short stroll to the lake and beach. With over 2,100 sq ft, this thoughtfully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home--plus bonus room and loft--delivers the kind of flexibility that's hard to come by at this price point. Whether you're hosting a full house or carving out a peaceful escape, every space is designed for both connection and comfort. The open, airy layout flows effortlessly onto an expansive deck--your go-to spot for summer nights, morning coffee, and après-lake lounging. Inside, recent upgrades including a modernized kitchen, refreshed baths, and new mini-split heating and cooling systems make this a true move-in-ready retreat. Just a 5-minute walk brings you to the lake, where you'll unlock access to all that makes Lake Naomi one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities--beaches, pools, golf, tennis, clubhouse dining, a fitness center, and year-round recreation. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway, a smart investment, or a full-time escape, this home is that rare find--a hidden gem that delivers on space, location, and lifestyle. Opportunities at this size and price point in Lake Naomi are limited--schedule your showing and see the difference for yourself.

4. 2026-03-05
   listed $515,000 Active 1359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1359 chars)

   Welcome to 1173 Deer Run, this 2,000+ sq ft retreat offers one of the best values in the community, blending space, style, and an unbeatable location just a short stroll to the lake and beach. With over 2,100 sq ft, this thoughtfully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home--plus bonus room and loft--delivers the kind of flexibility that's hard to come by at this price point. Whether you're hosting a full house or carving out a peaceful escape, every space is designed for both connection and comfort. The open, airy layout flows effortlessly onto an expansive deck--your go-to spot for summer nights, morning coffee, and après-lake lounging. Inside, recent upgrades including a modernized kitchen, refreshed baths, and new mini-split heating and cooling systems make this a true move-in-ready retreat. Just a 5-minute walk brings you to the lake, where you'll unlock access to all that makes Lake Naomi one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities--beaches, pools, golf, tennis, clubhouse dining, a fitness center, and year-round recreation. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway, a smart investment, or a full-time escape, this home is that rare find--a hidden gem that delivers on space, location, and lifestyle. Opportunities at this size and price point in Lake Naomi are limited--schedule your showing and see the difference for yourself.

5. 2025-07-15
   soldstatus $450,000
6. 2025-07-01
   soldstatus $450,000 Closed 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   Beautiful, well-kept Lake Naomi home in excellent location, within walking distance to Lake and outdoor, heated, Olympic size pool. Features include large dining room off gallery kitchen, with attached den/game room - large deck for entertaining, and great room offering a beautiful wood burning fireplace, creating a cozy ambiance perfect for chilly evenings - a must-see property.

7. 2025-05-27
   listed $459,000 Active 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   Beautiful, well-kept Lake Naomi home in excellent location, within walking distance to Lake and outdoor, heated, Olympic size pool. Features include large dining room off gallery kitchen, with attached den/game room - large deck for entertaining, and great room offering a beautiful wood burning fireplace, creating a cozy ambiance perfect for chilly evenings - a must-see property.

8. 2017-08-23
   soldstatus $183,000
9. 2017-08-16
   soldstatus $183,000
10. 2016-09-01
    listed $206,900
11. 2015-04-24
    listed $219,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,330 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,115 · $593/mo
• Expected delta: +$785/yr (+$65/mo · 12.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$6,330
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,648
• − Management: −$3,648
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$14,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,392
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Tobyhanna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocono Pines, PA
• Population (ZIP): 595

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 12% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Korean 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.00%
• Current HPI: 215.5562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+127.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $499,999 PMAR
• 2026-03-05 Listed $515,000 PMAR
• 2025-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-01 Sold (MLS) $450,000 PMAR
• 2025-05-27 Listed $459,000 PMAR
• 2017-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-16 Sold (MLS) $183,000 PMAR
• 2016-09-01 Listed $206,900 PMAR
• 2015-04-24 Listed $219,900 PMAR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,330 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.