4618 Old Waltertown Rd · Deenwood, GA 31503

$149,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1969 2.63 ac lot $98/sqft · 15% below area Est $175k · 15% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 2.63 acre property is overflowing with potential and great features. Located just north of Waycross off US1, you'll enjoy peaceful country living while being minutes from town. While modest, the home offers 4 bedrooms with a central full bath. With a vision and a little elbow grease, this home could shine! The star of the property might be the large workshop in the back as well as the 15 X 42 pole barn. The back portion of the property has been fenced off and includes another small barn. Don't miss the opportunity to turn this property into your dream home!

Key facts

• 2.63 acre property
• Small barn
• Large workshop

Tags

• 2.63 ACRE PROPERTY
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• 15 X 42 POLE BARN
• FENCED OFF BACK PORTION
• SMALL BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.8% in Deenwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#228 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ware County (town): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #95 of 174 in GA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wacona Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #617 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 937 students, 94% FRL); Ware County Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #243 of 470 statewide, top 53%, 783 students, 80% FRL); Ware County High School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #122 of 424 statewide, top 30%, 1,589 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 64% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Ware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ware County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,445
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -15.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4775 Dora St	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,425 (-6%)	14mo	$170,000	$119	70
4190 Church Street Ext	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,413 (-7%)	4mo	$139,000	$98	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-17,528
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,854
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31503

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,062/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $147	+0% $105	+5% $62	+10% $20
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $53	+0% $105	+5% $156	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $142	base $105	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $149,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricestatusdays on market $149,000 Price Change 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $157,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $157,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $157,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $157,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $157,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    price $157,000 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    This beautiful 2.63 acre property is overflowing with potential and great features. Located just north of Waycross off US1, you'll enjoy peaceful country living while being minutes from town. While modest, the home offers 4 bedrooms with a central full bath. With a vision and a little elbow grease, this home could shine! The star of the property might be the large workshop in the back as well as the 15 X 42 pole barn. The back portion of the property has been fenced off and includes another small barn. Don't miss the opportunity to turn this property into your dream home!

18. 2026-01-01
    listed $169,000 New 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    This beautiful 2.63 acre property is overflowing with potential and great features. Located just north of Waycross off US1, you'll enjoy peaceful country living while being minutes from town. While modest, the home offers 4 bedrooms with a central full bath. With a vision and a little elbow grease, this home could shine! The star of the property might be the large workshop in the back as well as the 15 X 42 pole barn. The back portion of the property has been fenced off and includes another small barn. Don't miss the opportunity to turn this property into your dream home!

19. 2025-09-10
    historical
20. 2025-03-17
    listed $159,900 Active
21. 2024-12-05
    historical
22. 2024-06-05
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$309/yr (+$26/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,062
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$303
• After-tax cash flow: $1,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ware County
• NCES district ID: 1305430
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,231
• Composite: 25.6/100
• National rank: #7415
• State rank: #95 of 174 in GA

Livability — Deenwood

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #13292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,173

Population outlook (Ware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,313 people
• By 2030: 32,071 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 29,587 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 27,197 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 22,323 · -33.0%
• By 2100: 18,197 · -45.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ware

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.3% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+41.7 2012: R+33.9 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.44%
• Current HPI: 230.6527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $157,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $169,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — GIAR
• 2025-03-17 Listed $159,900 GIAR
• 2024-12-05 Listing Removed — GIAR
• 2024-06-05 Listed $174,900 GIAR

Property tax history

+21.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,062 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.