221 Grand Ave · Cumberland, MD 21502

$139,999

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,078 sqft · MultiFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 1920 Average condition 4,250 sqft lot $45/sqft · 44% above area Est $97k · 44% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous single side of a duplex with new flooring throughout the unit, well maintained on both sides. Recently updated in 221. Unit has 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. If you have a large family or would like a great place to live than this is your new home. This property is a must see for investors. Close to everything within the City limits.

Key facts

• Recently updated
• New flooring
• Close to everything

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• WELL MAINTAINED
• RECENTLY UPDATED
• CLOSE TO EVERYTHING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $140k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $541/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,595/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 824% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,399 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.14%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,447
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: 43.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201-203 Race St	0.07mi	6/—	2,886 (-6%)	8mo	$130,000	$45	80
432-434 Pennsylvania Ave	0.21mi	7/— (+1)	3,034 (-1%)	18mo	$185,000	$61	67
23 Virginia Ave	0.24mi	5/5.0 (-1)	2,880 (-6%)	18mo	$63,000	$22	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $60,015
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $203,619
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $1,083

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 53%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3.0	1.5	$2,596
Total (2 units)			$2,595

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
630 Hill Top Dr Cumberland, MD	5.0	1.5	2300	$1,495	$0.65	43d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,999 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,999 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,999 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,999 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,999 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    price $139,999 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Fabulous single side of a duplex with new flooring throughout the unit, well maintained on both sides. Recently updated in 221. Unit has 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. If you have a large family or would like a great place to live than this is your new home. This property is a must see for investors. Close to everything within the City limits.

16. 2026-02-25
    historical
17. 2026-02-20
    listed $149,999 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Fabulous single side of a duplex with new flooring throughout the unit, well maintained on both sides. Recently updated in 221. Unit has 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. If you have a large family or would like a great place to live than this is your new home. This property is a must see for investors. Close to everything within the City limits.

18. 2026-01-26
    listed $149,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $11,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,746
• After-tax cash flow: $10,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This property is in moderate condition with some repairs and maintenance needed. Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — outdated and in need of replacement
• Minor bathroom fixtures — basic and in need of updating

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms will attract more buyers
• Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls will improve the overall appearance and attract more buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · outdated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · basic and in need of updating	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms will attract more buyers ↑
• Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls will improve the overall appearance and attract more buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $139,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $149,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $149,999 BRIGHT MLS