21 Holt Ave · Birmingham, AL 35214

$78,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1988 0.44 ac lot $83/sqft · at area comps Est $89k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

wow

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Pratt City subdivision; Lot size approximately 0.44 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer system; Electric water heater; Internet service availability unknown
• Home design: Existing construction; Single-story layout (all rooms listed at level 1); Siding exterior (vinyl)
• Construction: Slab foundation; Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: No pool, patio, decks, or garden reported; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: No heat system reported; Central cooling
• Interior features: Smooth ceilings; Hardwood floors; No additional interior amenities reported
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details reported

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Hampton K8 (math 4% / reading 22%, grade F, #532 of 627 statewide, top 85%, 513 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools at 86% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 116 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $78k implies a 420% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,660 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.07%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,060
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: -12.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 Macon St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	986 (+5%)	5mo	$130,000	$132	74
440 Henry St	0.19mi	2/1.0	880 (-6%)	18mo	$80,000	$91	66
121 Fairfax Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,014 (+8%)	20mo	$10,000	$10	65
621 Ozark Ct	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,072 (+14%)	15mo	$81,000	$76	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $9,225
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $29,436
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35214

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,083/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $406	+0% $384	+5% $361	+10% $339
Rent	-10% $292	-5% $338	+0% $384	+5% $429	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $403	base $384	+0.5pp $363	+1.0pp $343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
629 Lanett Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,200	$1.10	44d	1	0.25mi
528 Lamplighter Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,220	$1.10	4d	1	0.33mi
1137 Pratt Hwy Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	993	$1,045	$1.05	2d	1	0.90mi
1143 Oakley Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,300	$1.22	44d	1	0.90mi
1204 Pratt Hwy Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,125	$1.00	16d	1	0.94mi
204 5th Way Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1051	$1,100	$1.05	22d	1	0.94mi
315 Avenue U Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,200	$1.10	3d	1	1.11mi
115 Crabapple Ln Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	906	$855	$0.94	12d	19	1.17mi
1344 Pratt Hwy Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	936	$980	$1.05	44d	1	1.28mi
1411 Magnolia Dr Unit 1411 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	867	$950	$1.10	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $78,000 Active 3-char remark
15. 1986-10-10
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,083 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,083 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,083
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,112
• − Management: −$1,112
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $3,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$856
• After-tax cash flow: $3,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 17,027
• Household income: $56,383
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 578.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% White 18% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.48%
• Current HPI: 218.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+420.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $78,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1986-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,083 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.