290 Mcmakin-mcmullen Rd · Shelbyville, KY 40065

$10,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

Built 2024 19 ac lot $4/sqft · 98% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Residence The heart of the estate is a stunning new custom-built home. Thoughtfully designed with high-end finishes and an open-concept layout, the residence is built to maximize the scenic vistas of the surrounding acreage. Large windows invite natural light throughout and spacious living areas that make it as suitable for entertaining as it is for quiet country evenings. Equestrian Designed for the serious horse enthusiast, the property's infrastructure includes, Indoor Riding Arena: Train year-round regardless of the weather in the massive, high-clearance indoor arena. Barn & Stalls: barn featuring multiple horse stalls, ample hay storage, and a dedicated tack room. Pasture & Fencing: 18 acres of rolling, fertile ground, much of which is fenced and ready for grazing.

Key facts

• 18.8 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $10,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$459,189) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $9k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 163.2% vs local median 3.5% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#101 in KY, #4,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #77 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 237 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $300 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $1.34M (99%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $9,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 17.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 163.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 560.36%
• DSCR: 25.93
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $459,189
• List price: $10,000
• Delta: -97.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 30.17×
• Total profit: $81,682
• Equity at exit: $1,491

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 64.74×
• Total profit: $178,465
• Equity at exit: $865

Cash invested: $2,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40065

• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $150/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $1,308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $87

Max offer price $10,000

Occupancy floor 20%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,500
• Closing costs: $300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $10,000 Pending 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $10,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $10,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $10,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $10,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $10,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $10,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $10,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $10,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $10,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $10,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-05-01
    price $1,250,000 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    The Residence The heart of the estate is a stunning new custom-built home. Thoughtfully designed with high-end finishes and an open-concept layout, the residence is built to maximize the scenic vistas of the surrounding acreage. Large windows invite natural light throughout and spacious living areas that make it as suitable for entertaining as it is for quiet country evenings. Equestrian Designed for the serious horse enthusiast, the property's infrastructure includes, Indoor Riding Arena: Train year-round regardless of the weather in the massive, high-clearance indoor arena. Barn & Stalls: barn featuring multiple horse stalls, ample hay storage, and a dedicated tack room. Pasture & Fencing: 18 acres of rolling, fertile ground, much of which is fenced and ready for grazing.

13. 2026-04-08
    listed $1,350,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    The Residence The heart of the estate is a stunning new custom-built home. Thoughtfully designed with high-end finishes and an open-concept layout, the residence is built to maximize the scenic vistas of the surrounding acreage. Large windows invite natural light throughout and spacious living areas that make it as suitable for entertaining as it is for quiet country evenings. Equestrian Designed for the serious horse enthusiast, the property's infrastructure includes, Indoor Riding Arena: Train year-round regardless of the weather in the massive, high-clearance indoor arena. Barn & Stalls: barn featuring multiple horse stalls, ample hay storage, and a dedicated tack room. Pasture & Fencing: 18 acres of rolling, fertile ground, much of which is fenced and ready for grazing.

14. 2005-06-09
    historical
15. 2005-04-01
    listed $299,900
16. 2004-10-20
    soldstatus $255,000
17. 2004-02-22
    listed $299,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$560
• − Property taxes: −$150
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$291
• Taxable income: $16,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,963
• After-tax cash flow: $11,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 2105320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,163
• Composite: 28.19/100
• National rank: #6809
• State rank: #77 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #4143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shelby County · 32,160 people
• City population: 32,160
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 32,160
• Household income: $77,869
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,947 people
• By 2030: 56,624 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 63,983 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 70,917 · +33.9%
• By 2075: 87,345 · +65.0%
• By 2100: 97,345 · +83.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.7) · D 31.8% · R 66.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -34.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.7 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.73%
• Current HPI: 177.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+316.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $1,250,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $1,350,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2005-06-09 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2005-04-01 Listed $299,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-10-20 Sold (MLS) $255,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-02-22 Listed $299,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,124 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.