1214 Red Hills Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,625 sqft lot $161/sqft · 7% below area Est $294k · 5% under $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into easy living in this 2020 built home, perfectly designed for comfort, functionality, & everyday ease. Nestled in a thriving, up & coming neighborhood, this home is move-in ready & waiting for its next chapter. Inside, you’ll love the bright, open-concept living, dining, & kitchen area, an inviting space ideal for hosting, relaxing, & staying connected. The split-bedroom layout gives the primary suite its own quiet retreat, complete with a spacious bedroom, private bath, & generous closet space. Two additional bedrooms & a full bath are tucked away behind the living room, offering privacy for guests or family. Outside, enjoy an extended pa

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Epoxy floor garage
• Generator plug

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• EXTENDED PATIO
• EPOXY FLOOR GARAGE
• GENERATOR PLUG

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (PMG) with annual fee of $1,000; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pickleball, and pool; Association fee covers clubhouse and recreation facilities; Community features include community pool and curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2020; Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x15); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11x13); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12x13)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,147 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,189
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -5.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1333 Red Hills Dr	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,790 (+4%)	4mo	$295,900	$165	78
10510 Watershed Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-5%)	1mo	$258,000	$157	77
1213 Red Hills Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-8%)	3mo	$299,900	$190	77
1614 Diamond Mountain Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,710 (-1%)	1mo	$265,000	$155	73
10410 Russell Pines Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-6%)	4mo	$254,000	$156	70
10430 Sherwin Pass Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,924 (+11%)	3mo	$279,900	$145	61
1202 Paradise Found Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-8%)	1mo	$265,000	$168	59
1814 Homewood Point Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-5%)	3mo	$319,990	$196	55
10518 Sutter Creek Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,852 (+7%)	3mo	$354,900	$192	52
10618 Sutter Creek Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+8%)	2mo	$408,900	$218	51
9915 Garnet Grove Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,879 (+9%)	3mo	$254,000	$135	49
4311 Eagle Pass Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,941 (+12%)	4mo	$354,990	$183	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-66,221
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-102,004
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,783 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$762 /mo · $9,140/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,068

Max offer price $239,147

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	1d	1	0.09mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	1d	1	0.11mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,775	$1.82	1d	1	0.16mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,850	$1.79	20d	1	0.18mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	43d	1	0.19mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	43d	1	0.19mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	2d	1	0.21mi
1234 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	1d	1	0.23mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	43d	1	0.30mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	7d	1	0.40mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	43d	1	0.73mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,306	$1.40	1d	21	0.84mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	12d	1	0.95mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	43d	1	1.00mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,700	$1.56	1d	6	1.20mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	43d	7	1.20mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	22d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Pending 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Pending 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Pending 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Pending 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $279,000 Pending 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    status Active
16. 2026-04-15
    historical
17. 2026-04-15
    listed $279,000 Active 1042-char remark
18. 2026-04-03
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-27
    status Pending
20. 2026-02-23
    listed $279,000 Active
21. 2026-02-23
    historical
22. 2026-01-06
    listed $285,000 Active
23. 2026-01-06
    historical
24. 2025-12-04
    listed $285,000 Active
25. 2025-12-04
    historical
26. 2025-10-08
    historical
27. 2025-10-08
    listed $285,000 Active
28. 2025-09-15
    listed $285,000 Active
29. 2025-09-15
    historical
30. 2025-07-07
    listed $290,000 Active
31. 2025-07-07
    historical
32. 2025-06-04
    listed $299,000 Active
33. 2021-01-26
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2020-12-27
    status Pending
35. 2020-12-09
    listed $227,990 Active
36. 2020-12-08
    historical
37. 2020-11-28
    price $227,990
38. 2020-10-27
    listed $225,990 Active
39. 2020-10-26
    historical
40. 2020-09-05
    listed $225,990 Active
41. 2020-09-04
    historical
42. 2020-08-17
    price $225,990
43. 2020-07-15
    listed $223,990 Active
44. 2020-07-14
    historical
45. 2020-07-02
    status Active
46. 2020-06-29
    status Pending
47. 2020-06-19
    price $223,990
48. 2020-05-15
    listed $221,990 Active
49. 2020-05-14
    historical
50. 2020-03-22
    listed $221,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,140 · $762/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,140 · $762/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$9,140
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,671
• − Management: −$2,671
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$7,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,734
• After-tax cash flow: $-973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2020-built home is move-in ready and in good condition, with a good condition score of 80. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting exterior — refreshes the home's appearance and adds value
• Resale upgrading kitchen appliances — modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers
• Resale upgrading bathrooms — modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting exterior — refreshes the home's appearance and adds value ↑
• Resale upgrading kitchen appliances — modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers ↑
• Resale upgrading bathrooms — modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.7% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2021-01-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-12-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-09 Listed $227,990 HARMLS
• 2020-12-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-11-28 Price Changed $227,990 HARMLS
• 2020-10-27 Listed $225,990 HARMLS
• 2020-10-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-09-05 Listed $225,990 HARMLS
• 2020-09-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-08-17 Price Changed $225,990 HARMLS
• 2020-07-15 Listed $223,990 HARMLS
• 2020-07-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-07-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-06-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-19 Price Changed $223,990 HARMLS
• 2020-05-15 Listed $221,990 HARMLS
• 2020-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-03-22 Listed $221,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+90.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,140 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.