17720 W Calavar Rd · Surprise, AZ 85388

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2004 5,500 sqft lot Est $319k · at est. $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Sierra Montana! A Community filled w/ parks, greenbelts & walking paths! This well-maintained home offers 3 bed, 2 bath and a lg kitchen. With North/South exposure, this open concept home is light and bright and perfect for entertaining. The spacious eat-in kitchen offers ample cabinets, newer appliances and plenty of counter space. Tile flooring throughout the house for easy cleaning. The master BR with en-suite features a lg soaking tub and walk in closet. Step outside and enjoy a covered patio with extended slab ready for those backyard BBQs. Bring your toys as there is a large RV gate and paved side yard perfect for parking. All this, and a great location close to fabulous shopping, a wide variety of restaurants, good schools, & very convenient access to State Route 303!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Convenient access
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• SIERRA MONTANA COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association fee $210 quarterly; Association fee includes: Other (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted exterior with stone accents; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Desert front and desert back landscaping; Biking/walking path in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on main level (approx. 12 x 16)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in master bedroom; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups (washer/dryer not included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Hills Elementary (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #367 of 1,109 statewide, top 33%, 969 students, 42% FRL); Shadow Ridge High School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #88 of 381 statewide, top 24%, 2,323 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $867 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,773 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,308
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17765 W Ventura St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,353 (0%)	2mo	$339,900	$251	93
17755 W Hearn Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,403 (+4%)	2mo	$367,000	$262	85
17545 W Watson Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-4%)	0mo	$325,000	$251	82
17517 W Ventura St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+8%)	0mo	$328,000	$226	77
17611 W Watson Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-5%)	7mo	$349,900	$273	77
17449 W Calavar Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-6%)	3mo	$347,000	$274	74
17433 W Ventura St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,454 (+8%)	6mo	$343,000	$236	64
14915 N 177th Ave	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,298 (-4%)	4mo	$285,000	$220	59
17737 W Mandalay Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,495 (+10%)	4mo	$330,000	$221	57
14723 N 177th Ave	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,506 (+11%)	3mo	$319,000	$212	54
17766 W Banff Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,499 (+11%)	4mo	$326,000	$217	52
17769 W Woodrow Ln	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,499 (+11%)	4mo	$322,500	$215	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-22,235
• Equity at exit: $92,923

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-13,742
• Equity at exit: $115,239

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,168 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,055/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,385

Max offer price $274,618

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17715 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,100	$1.55	5d	1	0.03mi
17520 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,800	$1.42	5d	1	0.25mi
17863 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,750	$1.08	43d	1	0.26mi
17618 W Mandalay Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,795	$1.14	43d	1	0.46mi
14743 N 177th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.5	1362	$1,695	$1.24	21d	1	0.51mi
17746 W Banff Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,785	$1.19	43d	1	0.53mi
17730 W Banff Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1839	$2,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.54mi
17724 W Woodrow Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,850	$1.43	12d	1	0.60mi
14916 N 177th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,849	$1.42	4d	1	0.62mi
17180 W Sweetwater Ave Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,925	$2.35	2d	25	0.77mi
13500 N Cotton Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1134	$1,645	$1.45	24d	388	0.79mi
17938 W Port Royale Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1775	$2,149	$1.21	5d	1	0.80mi
14945 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,099	$1.24	5d	1	0.81mi
17923 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	43d	1	0.86mi
17218 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,800	$1.20	11d	1	0.90mi
17862 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,600	$1.47	18d	1	0.92mi
17176 W Corrine Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	21d	1	0.99mi
17867 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1767	$3,500	$1.98	43d	1	1.13mi
17190 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,699	$1.13	23d	1	1.17mi
12350 N Cotton Ln Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,479	$2.54	1d	1	1.18mi
17244 W Vacaville St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1530	$2,995	$1.96	24d	1	1.29mi
18184 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1682	$1,895	$1.13	24d	1	1.35mi
17714 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,485	$1.06	18d	1	1.36mi
17722 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,185	$1.24	1d	1	1.36mi
17794 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,800	$1.28	43d	1	1.41mi
17009 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,862	$1.31	43d	1	1.44mi
15927 N 171st Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,200	$1.92	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $305,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $305,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $305,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $305,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $305,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,000 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,055 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$958/yr (+$80/mo · 90.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$1,055
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$7,527
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,807
• After-tax cash flow: $-257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+27.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $305,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-03-03 Price Changed $367,000 ARMLS
• 2024-01-27 Price Changed $373,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $376,900 ARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listed $385,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-11 Sold (MLS) $350,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-13 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $360,000 ARMLS
• 2022-10-01 Price Changed $385,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-10 Listed $399,900 ARMLS
• 2020-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-31 Sold (MLS) $242,000 ARMLS
• 2020-05-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-05-23 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2020-05-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2020-05-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2020-05-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2020-01-31 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-01-21 Listed $239,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,055 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.