11533 Black Lock Rd · Naples, NY 14512

$119,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1995 2.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on 2.4 private acres, this updated 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath manufactured home offers quiet country living with room to relax, work, or play. The property features an oversized detached garage with plenty of storage and workspace, plus open outdoor space ideal for recreation, hobbies, or enjoying the peaceful setting. Conveniently located near Naples, wineries, skiing, hiking, and the Finger Lakes. Great opportunity for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment property.

Key facts

• Private acres
• Outdoor space
• Detached garage

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• DETACHED GARAGE
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Radco make; One story; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered porch; Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); Secluded, wooded site; Irregular/rural lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Kitchen island; Main-level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 1.1% in Naples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#608 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Naples Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #292 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $120k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $117,707 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.93%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,520
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $17,297
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14512

• Home prices YoY: -4.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,135/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $976

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-30
   listed $119,500 Active 493-char remark
2. 2025-10-14
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-10
   historical
4. 2025-10-01
   status Active
5. 2025-05-26
   status Pending
6. 2025-03-31
   listed $119,900 Active
7. 2024-09-07
   historical
8. 2024-09-07
   historical
9. 2024-09-06
   historical
10. 2024-07-09
    status Pending
11. 2024-07-01
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2024-06-28
    listed $120,000 Active
13. 2022-09-26
    soldstatus $75,000
14. 2022-09-21
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed Sale or Rented
15. 2022-08-03
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
16. 2022-07-08
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
17. 2022-06-29
    price $99,900
18. 2022-06-11
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$442/yr (+$37/mo · 39.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,135
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,240
• − Management: −$1,240
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $1,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$267
• After-tax cash flow: $2,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Naples Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620220
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,934
• Composite: 47.91/100
• National rank: #2212
• State rank: #292 of 590 in NY

Livability — Naples

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #608
• US rank: #10973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,908

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.68%
• Current HPI: 301.9192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $119,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-05-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-07 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-09-07 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-09-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-07-09 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-07-01 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2024-06-28 Listed $120,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-21 Sold (MLS) $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-08-03 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2022-07-08 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2022-06-29 Price Changed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2022-06-11 Listed $115,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,135 · +43.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.