1212 Kinsella Ave · Swansea, IL 62226

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1930 10,454 sqft lot Est $89k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity with this 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offering solid bones and plenty of potential. This home is livable as-is, making it perfect for buyers looking to move in now and update over time. Inside, you’ll find a cozy fireplace and additional living space that offers flexibility for a second living area, office, or bonus room. Outside features a detached 1-car garage and room to make it your own. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking to build equity, this home is full of possibilities.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Estimated living area ~1,500 (source: estimated/public records); Lot size about 0.24 acre; Seller may consider concessions; No pool
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage indicated

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces total; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren)
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half stories; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total (1 on main level, 2 on upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; 1 fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 1.9% in Swansea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#105 in IL, #1,705 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Franklin Elem School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,056 statewide, top 71%, 145 students, 0% FRL); Central Jr High School (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #410 of 665 statewide, top 62%, 366 students, 0% FRL); Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.83%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1213 Kinsella Ave	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+8%)	11mo	$145,000	$168	67
1007 Western Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5	884 (+10%)	10mo	$132,500	$150	64
708 Gilbert St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (+14%)	1mo	$94,500	$104	63
504 N 16th St	0.47mi	3/1.0	840 (+5%)	10mo	$54,900	$65	58
324 Gilbert St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	914 (+14%)	2mo	$96,900	$106	56
612 Morgan St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-2%)	10mo	$134,000	$171	52
18 N 16th St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-4%)	2mo	$22,000	$29	52
112 Brackett St	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	722 (-10%)	9mo	$80,000	$111	50
1712 Boul Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	825 (+3%)	14mo	$114,900	$139	46
1604 Pin Oak Ln	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+8%)	11mo	$119,900	$139	43
513 N Fourth St	0.50mi	2/1.5 (-1)	909 (+14%)	6mo	$25,000	$28	42
13 S 16th St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (+10%)	4mo	$29,900	$34	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,437
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $27,131
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62226

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,794/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,013

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $269	+0% $237	+5% $204	+10% $172
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $185	+0% $237	+5% $289	+10% $341
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $266	base $237	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1308 Caseyville Ave Swansea, IL	2.0	1.0	890	$1,200	$1.35	6d	1	0.28mi
31 S 27th St Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$915	$0.92	25d	1	1.01mi
1671 Shadow Ridge Ct Belleville, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$1,325	$1.62	0d	10	1.14mi
213 Columbus Dr Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,650	$1.59	25d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $115,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-05-07
   listed $115,000 Active
10. 2026-05-05
    historical $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,202 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 22.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,794
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$259
• After-tax cash flow: $2,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Swansea

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #1705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Swansea, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 47,407
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,255
• Household income: $70,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.57%
• Current HPI: 133.9028
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,794 · +21.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.