4412 Orange St · Houston, TX 77020

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1936 5,000 sqft lot $174/sqft · 24% above area Est $181k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

THIS DUPLEX HAS 2 BDROOMS AND 1 BATH ON EACH SIDE. SELLER HAS UPGRADED THE EXTERIOR/NEW ROOF/NEW WINDOWS/RECENT PAINT. ONE BATHROOM IS UMFINISHED AND FLOORING IS NEEDED. BOTH SIDES HAVE NOW BEEN FINISHED WITH NEW DRY WALL. CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, CHURCHES, AND LOCATED BEHIND A BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT...WALKING DISTANCE TO BUS STOP AND 5 MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN. PICTURES WILL BE FORTHCOMING SOON!

Key facts

• Recent paint
• Upgraded exterior
• New roof

Tags

• UPGRADED EXTERIOR
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• RECENT PAINT
• FINISHED WITH NEW DRY WALL
• WALKING DISTANCE TO BUS STOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $190/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,413/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.22%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,307
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 24.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4003 Farmer St	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	16mo	$199,999	$144	62
5005 New Orleans St	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	18mo	$169,000	$121	52
4611 Rawley St	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	21mo	$174,900	$120	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $149,823
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.81×
• Total profit: $428,931
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,413 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,043/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,933

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $506	-5% $443	+0% $379	+5% $315	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $284	+0% $379	+5% $474	+10% $570
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $436	base $379	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $261

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,414
Total (2 units)			$2,413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.14mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	0.39mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	21d	1	0.40mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	21d	1	0.40mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	0.56mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.66mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.72mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	0.72mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	44d	1	0.82mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,931	$3.50	0d	1	0.82mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	8d	1	0.84mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	23d	1	0.91mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	6d	1	1.04mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,867	$1.86	6d	1	1.15mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	44d	1	1.31mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$3,420	$3.52	2d	69	1.36mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-07
    price $249,900 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    THIS DUPLEX HAS 2 BDROOMS AND 1 BATH ON EACH SIDE. SELLER HAS UPGRADED THE EXTERIOR/NEW ROOF/NEW WINDOWS/RECENT PAINT. ONE BATHROOM IS UMFINISHED AND FLOORING IS NEEDED. BOTH SIDES HAVE NOW BEEN FINISHED WITH NEW DRY WALL. CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, CHURCHES, AND LOCATED BEHIND A BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT...WALKING DISTANCE TO BUS STOP AND 5 MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN. PICTURES WILL BE FORTHCOMING SOON!

14. 2026-04-02
    listed $260,000 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    THIS DUPLEX HAS 2 BDROOMS AND 1 BATH ON EACH SIDE. SELLER HAS UPGRADED THE EXTERIOR/NEW ROOF/NEW WINDOWS/RECENT PAINT. ONE BATHROOM IS UMFINISHED AND FLOORING IS NEEDED. BOTH SIDES HAVE NOW BEEN FINISHED WITH NEW DRY WALL. CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, CHURCHES, AND LOCATED BEHIND A BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT...WALKING DISTANCE TO BUS STOP AND 5 MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN. PICTURES WILL BE FORTHCOMING SOON!

15. 2025-09-16
    status Active
16. 2025-09-15
    historical
17. 2025-09-15
    historical
18. 2025-07-29
    price $250,000
19. 2025-06-24
    price $210,000
20. 2025-02-06
    status Active
21. 2025-01-29
    status Option Pending
22. 2024-11-19
    listed $175,000 Active
23. 2020-12-15
    soldstatus
24. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,043 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,075/yr (+$90/mo · 35.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,043
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,006
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$242
• After-tax cash flow: $4,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,043 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.