49 W Duck St · Front Royal, VA 22630

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL!! on the edge of downtown Front Royal-river around the corner, I-66 five minutes out. That combination does not show up often at this price point. The house needs real work. Structural, roof, mechanicals-this isn't a lipstick flip. It's price accordingly and conventional financing in on the table for the right buyer. Public water, public sewer. No well, no septic eating into your margin. And that half-acre? Garden it, fence it, park your equipment, or just enjoy the breathing room-in a town where lots this size close to everything are getting harder to find. This house has real bones and character; it wants to be brought back. Picture it done-new roof, fresh systems, a kit

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Public sewer
• Half acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER
• QUIET STREET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Above-grade finished living space
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Other type foundation; Built year information from assessor
• Exterior features: Detached structure; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Level entry to main level; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $877 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.5% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.48%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $366,240
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49 W Duck St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,635 (0%)	0mo	$115,000	$70	100
147 W Duck St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,788 (+9%)	2mo	$400,000	$224	70
1186 South Fork Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+4%)	12mo	$455,000	$267	53
34 East 19th St	0.72mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,656 (+1%)	1mo	$199,900	$121	53
1216 South Fork Dr	0.58mi	3/3.0	1,650 (+1%)	13mo	$386,000	$234	53
1604 Jefferson Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,561 (-4%)	5mo	$440,000	$282	51
1 Depot Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,772 (+8%)	1mo	$350,000	$198	47
1190 S Fork Dr	0.55mi	3/3.0	1,780 (+9%)	14mo	$395,000	$222	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $40,802
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $168,007
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,486/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $877

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,411

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $976	-5% $927	+0% $877	+5% $827	+10% $778
Rent	-10% $678	-5% $777	+0% $877	+5% $977	+10% $1,076
Rate	-1.0pp $965	-0.5pp $922	base $877	+0.5pp $832	+1.0pp $786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31 W Duck St Front Royal, VA	4.0	3.5	2036	$2,450	$1.20	44d	1	0.06mi
352 W 11th St Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.5	1560	$2,600	$1.67	44d	1	1.12mi
350 W 11th St Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,600	$1.67	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-16
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,486
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,420
• − Management: −$2,420
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $8,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,957
• After-tax cash flow: $8,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Front Royal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #5050

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Front Royal, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• City population: 35,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,486 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.