11807 Guessing Way · San Antonio, TX 78073

$183,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $195k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 11807 Guessing Way, Von Ormy TX 78073; Listing status: Active; Last updated: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $183,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Oakridge floor plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,266

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Oakridge plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $184k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($585/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $167,134 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,964
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6046 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,266 (0%)	6mo	$205,999	$163	88
6014 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,266 (0%)	7mo	$194,999	$154	87
5934 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,266 (0%)	8mo	$194,999	$154	87
5966 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,266 (0%)	8mo	$198,999	$157	87
6039 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-4%)	6mo	$195,999	$162	81
6007 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-4%)	7mo	$188,999	$156	80
5943 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-4%)	8mo	$195,999	$162	80
6043 Singing Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	6mo	$182,999	$152	73
6018 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	4mo	$185,999	$133	72
5958 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	6mo	$194,999	$139	70
6038 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	6mo	$198,499	$142	70
6002 Sliding Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	6mo	$190,999	$136	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $21,442
• Equity at exit: $78,632

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $76,913
• Equity at exit: $118,084

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,760/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $183,999

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $112	+0% $49	+5% $-15	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-17	+0% $49	+5% $115	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $96	base $49	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11815 Adoring Way Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,750	$1.09	45d	1	0.07mi
11835 Adoring Way Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.10mi
6002 Sliding Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,425	$1.02	25d	1	0.15mi
12955 Fischer Rd Von Ormy, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,357	$1.28	25d	1	1.03mi
4839 Legacy Pt Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,795	$1.08	23d	1	1.16mi
13139 Watson Rd Von Ormy, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,617	$1.59	4d	1	1.16mi
4606 Legacy Trl Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,695	$1.02	6d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $183,999 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $183,999 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $183,999 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $183,999 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $183,999 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $183,999 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $183,999 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $183,999 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $183,999 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $183,999 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $183,999 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $183,999 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $183,999 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $183,999 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$2,760
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$2,492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$598
• After-tax cash flow: $1,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 15 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes, making it move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains improve rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains improve rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B