13369 Arrowhead Dr SW · Pillager, MN 56473

$59,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2000 1.03 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Build Your Dream on Arrowhead Drive! Discover the perfect opportunity to create your ideal home on this beautiful 1-acre lot nestled in a peaceful setting. Located at 13369 Arrowhead Dr SW, this property offers privacy and flexibility with its own well and septic already in place—saving you time and upfront costs. The existing manufactured home will be removed, leaving you with a clean slate to bring in a new home or design and build exactly what you’ve been dreaming of. Enjoy the added bonus of backing up to public land, providing extra privacy and a natural backdrop. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the potential access to a nearby ditch leading toward Lake Placid, opening the door to recreational possibilities right from your backyard. Whether you're looking to build now or invest for the future, this property offers a rare combination of location, privacy, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Own septic
• 1 acre lot
• Own well

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• OWN WELL
• OWN SEPTIC
• BACKING UP TO PUBLIC LAND
• ACCESS TO NEARBY DITCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $883 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#722 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pillager Public School District (rural): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #146 of 301 in MN (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $60k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.19%
• DSCR: 3.81
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $46,534
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $112,917
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56473

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $266/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $457

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $59,900 Pending 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $59,900 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $59,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $59,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-04-13
    listed $59,900 Active 949-char remark

    Show marketing remark (949 chars)

    Build Your Dream on Arrowhead Drive! Discover the perfect opportunity to create your ideal home on this beautiful 1-acre lot nestled in a peaceful setting. Located at 13369 Arrowhead Dr SW, this property offers privacy and flexibility with its own well and septic already in place—saving you time and upfront costs. The existing manufactured home will be removed, leaving you with a clean slate to bring in a new home or design and build exactly what you’ve been dreaming of. Enjoy the added bonus of backing up to public land, providing extra privacy and a natural backdrop. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the potential access to a nearby ditch leading toward Lake Placid, opening the door to recreational possibilities right from your backyard. Whether you're looking to build now or invest for the future, this property offers a rare combination of location, privacy, and potential. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

11. 2004-04-05
    soldstatus $15,000 95-char remark

    Show marketing remark (95 chars)

    2+ BR mobile home on nice 1 acre lot. Conforming septic, sand point well, rent it out or build.

12. 2004-03-01
    soldstatus $15,000
13. 2004-02-28
    historical 95-char remark

    Show marketing remark (95 chars)

    2+ BR mobile home on nice 1 acre lot. Conforming septic, sand point well, rent it out or build.

14. 2003-12-10
    listed $22,500 95-char remark

    Show marketing remark (95 chars)

    2+ BR mobile home on nice 1 acre lot. Conforming septic, sand point well, rent it out or build.

15. 2001-10-01
    soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $266 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $468 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 76.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$266
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $10,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,452
• After-tax cash flow: $8,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pillager Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2728350
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,200
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3577
• State rank: #146 of 301 in MN

Livability — Pillager

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #722
• US rank: #17425

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,371 people
• By 2030: 26,311 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,945 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 21,889 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 18,435 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 14,478 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.6% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+31.7 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.65%
• Current HPI: 233.7849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+223.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $59,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-05 Sold (MLS) $15,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-10 Listed $22,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2015): $266 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.