2409 Chesapeake Way · Abilene, TX 79606

$319,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot Est $329k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

D. R. HORTON AMERICA'S BUILDER is EXCITED TO SERVE AS YOUR HOME BUILDER in the FABULOUS COMMUNITY of HAMPTON HILLS in ABILENE! Great open concept single Story home! Optimizing indoor and outdoor entertainment space with an open Living, Dining and large Chef's Kitchen complete with Island, Stainless Steel Appliances, Gas Range, Granite Countertops, 4 inch backsplash, Cabinet Hardware, SS undermount Sink and walk-in pantry. Large primary and big walk-in Closet. Wood look tile floors with plush carpet only in the Bedrooms, Gas Tankless Water Heater, double pane-low E Windows plus Home is Connected Smart Home Technology Pkg. Covered front porch, wide covered back Patio, 6 ft wood privacy fenced

Key facts

• Open concept
• Granite countertops
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• GAS TANKLESS WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dyess El (math 48% / reading 53%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 617 students, 69% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Abilene ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,137 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,512
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2157 Providence Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,916 (+2%)	4mo	$332,975	$174	84
2202 Providence Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,773 (-6%)	4mo	$305,515	$172	77
2141 Continental Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,978 (+5%)	4mo	$330,000	$167	75
2125 Providence Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,773 (-6%)	4mo	$302,740	$171	74
3057 Founders Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (-4%)	2mo	$315,000	$173	67
3065 Legacy Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,731 (-8%)	2mo	$325,000	$188	67
2166 Providence Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (-9%)	4mo	$300,515	$176	66
3442 Liberty	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-15%)	2mo	$329,950	$205	64
2117 Providence Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (-9%)	4mo	$298,515	$174	63
2326 Old Ironsides Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-14%)	4mo	$300,000	$184	58
2341 Plymouth Rock Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (-13%)	3mo	$295,000	$180	56
2101 Providence Dr	0.31mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,087 (+10%)	4mo	$335,515	$161	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-44,127
• Equity at exit: $47,712

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $17,711
• Equity at exit: $27,667

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,671 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $305,376

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $10	+0% $-101	+5% $-212	+10% $-322
Rent	-10% $-312	-5% $-207	+0% $-101	+5% $5	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-20	base $-101	+0.5pp $-184	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,998
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-02
   listed $319,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥104°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,924
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,565
• − Management: −$2,565
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$6,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,609
• After-tax cash flow: $397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $319,990 NTREIS