648 Bushy Trail Loop SW · Supply, NC 28462

$318,960

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,970 sqft lot 2-car garage $145/sqft · 5% below area Est $336k · 5% under $89/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Fox Run, offering new homes with thoughtful details and smart designs plus a convenient location. * 4 bedroom, 2.5 baths * Open concept great room, dining room and kitchen * First floor primary bedroom with walk in closet, separate linen closet, double vanity, and 5' shower * Kitchen with center island, granite countertops, tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances including refrigerator, pantry, and 36'' cabinets * Three secondary bedrooms, 1 full bathroom and a spacious loft/second living room on second level * Covered back porch * Home is Connected * Quicktie Framing System * Builder Warranty * This is America's Smart Home!

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Walk in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY
• CENTER ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-560 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 600 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,339 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.53%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,301
• List price: $318,960
• Delta: -5.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1955 Duck Haven Ave SW	0.39mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,080 (-6%)	8mo	$369,900	$178	57
2186 Lakeside Ave SW	1.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,202 (-0%)	12mo	$245,000	$111	50
2003 Trout Ave SW	1.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,974 (-10%)	6mo	$253,000	$128	37
1853 Pintail Ave SW	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-17%)	7mo	$235,000	$129	36
1360 Sweetwater Ln SW	1.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,984 (-10%)	7mo	$389,000	$196	36
1215 Windy Grove Ln #1	1.32mi	4/3.0	1,965 (-11%)	13mo	$279,900	$142	32
2147 Rosemary Ln SW	1.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-7%)	24mo	$475,000	$233	28
1722 Balsam Dr SW	0.91mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-21%)	16mo	$215,000	$124	21
2161 Chair Shop Pl SW	0.89mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,874 (-15%)	17mo	$200,000	$107	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-87,295
• Equity at exit: $47,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-121,624
• Equity at exit: $27,578

Cash invested: $89,309 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $295,240 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 83% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 600
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,784/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$89
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,903

Max offer price $237,857

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-340	-5% $-450	+0% $-560	+5% $-671	+10% $-781
Rent	-10% $-734	-5% $-647	+0% $-560	+5% $-474	+10% $-387
Rate	-1.0pp $-400	-0.5pp $-479	base $-560	+0.5pp $-643	+1.0pp $-727

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,740
• Closing costs: $9,569
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private paved road frontageLot dimensions approximately 66 x 120 x 57 x 104Zoned residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with professional managementAnnual association fee of $1,068 (about $89/month)Community poolSidewalksStreet lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageGarage faces frontConcrete drivewayGarage door opener2 total parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSewer availableUnderground utilitiesWater availableElectric service
• Home design: Single-family residenceNew constructionTwo levels (2 stories)Entry level: 1Frame construction with vinyl sidingHome warranty included
• Construction: Built on a slab foundationFrame with vinyl sidingShingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porchesPorchFront porchRear porchNo fencingShingle roofHas viewLighting (energy efficient)

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorRangeDishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliancesElectric water heaterKitchen islandPantry
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsAccessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump coolingThermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the main levelWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsEntrance foyerKitchen islandPantryUnfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $318,960 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $318,960 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $318,960 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $318,960 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $318,960 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $318,960 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $318,960 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $318,960 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $318,960 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $318,960 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $318,960 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $318,960 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $318,960 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $318,960 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $318,960 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $318,960 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $318,960 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $318,960 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $318,960 Active 46 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $318,960 Active 45 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $318,960 Active 44 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $318,960 Active 43 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $318,960 Active 42 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $318,960 Active 41 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $318,960 Active 40 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $318,960 Active 39 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $318,960 Active 38 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $318,960 Active 37 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $318,960 Active 36 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $318,960 Active 35 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $318,960 Active 34 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $318,960 Active 33 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $318,960 Active 32 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $318,960 Active 31 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $318,960 Active 30 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $318,960 Active 29 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $318,960 Active 27 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $318,960 Active 25 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $318,960 Active 24 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $318,960 Active 21 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $318,960 Active 20 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $318,960 Active 19 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $318,960 Active 18 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $318,960 Active 16 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $318,960 Active 15 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $318,960 Active 13 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $318,960 Active 12 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $318,960 Active 11 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $318,960 Active 10 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $318,960 Active 7 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,867
• − Property taxes: −$4,784
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − HOA: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$9,279
• Taxable loss: −$12,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,996
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Supply Elementary F NC #625/1,410 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle F NC #305/475 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High West Brunswick High C- NC #281/535 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Supply

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 12,340
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private paved road frontageLot dimensions approximately 66 x 120 x 57 x 104Zoned residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with professional managementAnnual association fee of $1,068 (about $89/month)Community poolSidewalksStreet lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageGarage faces frontConcrete drivewayGarage door opener2 total parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSewer availableUnderground utilitiesWater availableElectric service
• Home design: Single-family residenceNew constructionTwo levels (2 stories)Entry level: 1Frame construction with vinyl sidingHome warranty included
• Construction: Built on a slab foundationFrame with vinyl sidingShingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porchesPorchFront porchRear porchNo fencingShingle roofHas viewLighting (energy efficient)

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorRangeDishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliancesElectric water heaterKitchen islandPantry
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsAccessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump coolingThermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the main levelWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsEntrance foyerKitchen islandPantryUnfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $318,960 Hive MLS