493 Goode Dr · Shenandoah Farms, VA 22630

$109,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1970 0.34 ac lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell! Will move quick at this price on a great little house in the woods! 2B, 1FB, kitchen & LR with wood fireplace, nice front yard, lots of decking. Great get-away or full time living! Sanitary district, lake priviledges. Close to Rt. 50 & I-66 for access. As-IS Where IS. Buyers to do inspections. No HD records. Well & Cistern info per request.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership: Fee simple; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway with four driveway parking spaces (total of 4 garage/parking spaces listed)
• Utilities: Water provided by cistern and holding tank; Septic system present; Electric service available (150 Amps); Hot water: electric
• Home design: Detached single-story structure; Building not winterized
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Foundation: block and pillar/post/pier (permanent); Wood-framed windows; Above-grade and below-grade other structures noted; Major rehab needed
• Exterior features: Sloping lot; Not in a federal flood zone; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Engineered wood; Laminate plank; Rough-in flooring noted
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Electric heating fuel; 150 Amp electrical service
• Interior features: Paneled walls and drywall; Wood ceilings; Unfinished wall areas noted
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (laundry located in the basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.8% in Shenandoah Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#440 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $110k implies a 279% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.57%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,252
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
89 Cindys Way	0.50mi	2/1.5	624 (+9%)	12mo	$275,000	$441	50
1493 Western Ln	0.54mi	2/1.0	650 (+14%)	15mo	$260,000	$400	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $20,342
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $92,374
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $880

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 208-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $109,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $4,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,000
• After-tax cash flow: $4,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Farms

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #18845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Farms, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-08-31 Sold (MLS) $29,000 MRIS
• 2012-08-31 Sold (MLS) $29,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-08-22 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-08-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-08-17 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-08-17 Price Changed $29,900 MRIS
• 2012-07-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-06-18 Price Changed $34,900 MRIS
• 2012-06-07 Price Changed $39,900 MRIS
• 2012-05-23 Price Changed $44,900 MRIS
• 2012-05-10 Price Changed $54,900 MRIS
• 2012-04-25 Price Changed $59,900 MRIS
• 2012-04-10 Price Changed $64,900 MRIS
• 2012-03-24 Listed $69,900 MRIS
• 2012-03-23 Listed $29,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-06-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-12-15 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-12-09 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-12-09 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-10-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-06-07 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-17 Sold (MLS) $139,900 MRIS
• 2006-04-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-02-21 Listed $139,900 MRIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $881 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.