3827 Coconut Dr · St. James City, FL 33956

$380,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · Manufactured public records · 337 Days on market

Built 1973 3,267 sqft lot Est $499k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for that Gulf Access weekend get away for under 200K? Minutes to the back bay, fish Ding Darling, Red Fish Pass, Sanibel Beaches just minutes by boat from your dock and lift. Enjoy the St. James City way of life. Over 1500 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, CBS storage room and one car garage but more importantly a covered lift (canvas cover brand new waiting for you) and great dock just outside your back door. We will consider all offers please keep in mind this manufactured home is being sold As/Is with right to inspect. Owner will not be making repairs so please offer accordingly.

Key facts

• Covered boat lift
• Spacious dock
• Cbs storage room

Tags

• HURRICANE IMPACT WINDOWS
• CBS STORAGE ROOM
• SPACIOUS DOCK
• COVERED BOAT LIFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Community with 161 units; Boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 covered space; Driveway; Paved parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Security/high-impact doors; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home on pillar/post/pier foundation; Single-story; Entry level 1; Faces north; Has view
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Manufactured construction; Built-up and flat roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Security/high-impact doors; Smoke detector(s); Canal access waterfront; South exposure; Zero lot line; Private road with private maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Dual sinks; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Shower only with separate shower; Furnishing negotiable
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $380k).
• Recommended offer: $334k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $380k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $334,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.98%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $499,329
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3122 Binnacle Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-1%)	11mo	$305,000	$202	63
2970 Sloop Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,374 (-10%)	22mo	$449,900	$327	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $7,387
• Equity at exit: $56,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $95,836
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,348/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,046
• Net cashflow: $1,079

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,616

Max offer price $380,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,294	-5% $1,187	+0% $1,079	+5% $972	+10% $864
Rent	-10% $686	-5% $883	+0% $1,079	+5% $1,276	+10% $1,473
Rate	-1.0pp $1,271	-0.5pp $1,176	base $1,079	+0.5pp $981	+1.0pp $881

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.33mi
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.45mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.53mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	24d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $380,000 Active 337 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,000 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,000 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $380,000 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $380,000 Active 329 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $380,000 Active 327 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $380,000 Active 322 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $380,000 Active 321 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $380,000 Active 320 DOM
10. 2026-04-13
    price $380,000
11. 2026-03-26
    price $390,000
12. 2026-02-27
    price $395,000
13. 2025-10-31
    price $425,000
14. 2025-08-25
    price $449,000
15. 2025-07-11
    listed $465,000 Active
16. 2018-03-13
    soldstatus $175,000
17. 2018-03-08
    soldstatus $175,000 Sold 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Looking for that Gulf Access weekend get away for under 200K? Minutes to the back bay, fish Ding Darling, Red Fish Pass, Sanibel Beaches just minutes by boat from your dock and lift. Enjoy the St. James City way of life. Over 1500 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, CBS storage room and one car garage but more importantly a covered lift (canvas cover brand new waiting for you) and great dock just outside your back door. We will consider all offers please keep in mind this manufactured home is being sold As/Is with right to inspect. Owner will not be making repairs so please offer accordingly.

18. 2018-02-06
    status Pending 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Looking for that Gulf Access weekend get away for under 200K? Minutes to the back bay, fish Ding Darling, Red Fish Pass, Sanibel Beaches just minutes by boat from your dock and lift. Enjoy the St. James City way of life. Over 1500 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, CBS storage room and one car garage but more importantly a covered lift (canvas cover brand new waiting for you) and great dock just outside your back door. We will consider all offers please keep in mind this manufactured home is being sold As/Is with right to inspect. Owner will not be making repairs so please offer accordingly.

19. 2017-10-17
    listed $199,000 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Looking for that Gulf Access weekend get away for under 200K? Minutes to the back bay, fish Ding Darling, Red Fish Pass, Sanibel Beaches just minutes by boat from your dock and lift. Enjoy the St. James City way of life. Over 1500 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, CBS storage room and one car garage but more importantly a covered lift (canvas cover brand new waiting for you) and great dock just outside your back door. We will consider all offers please keep in mind this manufactured home is being sold As/Is with right to inspect. Owner will not be making repairs so please offer accordingly.

20. 2006-06-28
    historical
21. 2006-01-09
    listed $334,000
22. 2001-09-06
    soldstatus $93,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,348 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,348 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$3,348
• − Insurance: −$7,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,783
• − Management: −$4,783
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable income: $7,515
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,804
• After-tax cash flow: $11,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+305.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $380,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $390,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $395,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $425,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $449,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $465,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-08 Sold (MLS) $175,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-02-06 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2017-10-17 Listed $199,000 FORTMLS
• 2006-06-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-09 Listed $334,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $93,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,348 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.