529 Old Western Pass · Sonterra, TX 76537

$220,542

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $272k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Create memories when you step inside your new home that includes modern finishes from top to bottom. Cook family meals in your open kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and a large island. This two-story home also provides plenty of space with extra loft space and a patio that's perfect for entertaining guests.

Key facts

• Extra loft space
• Large island
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• EXTRA LOFT SPACE
• PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $250,190

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric heating and heat pump; Central air
• Home design: Spec new construction — Voyager plan; Single-family residence (address: 529 Old Western Pass, Jarrell TX)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1826; Built in 2026

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat and heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $221k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($464/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Sonterra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $197,824 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,074
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Starpacker Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (+5%)	2mo	$255,990	$133	80
345 Brannigan Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,979 (+8%)	3mo	$249,990	$126	76
349 Brannigan Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-12%)	3mo	$232,990	$145	67
344 Brannigan Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-12%)	2mo	$229,990	$143	67
121 Starpacker Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-12%)	2mo	$232,999	$145	67
356 Brannigan Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-12%)	2mo	$239,990	$149	66
116 Starpacker Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-12%)	1mo	$246,999	$154	66
105 Starpacker Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-12%)	3mo	$254,990	$159	65
129 Morrison Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-14%)	2mo	$252,900	$160	57
910 Yellow Ribbon Cv	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,888 (+3%)	2mo	$279,276	$148	54
145 Hatari Trl	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,945 (+6%)	1mo	$307,990	$158	52
109 Green Berets Bnd	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,625 (-11%)	2mo	$271,990	$167	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,040
• Equity at exit: $32,884

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-53,106
• Equity at exit: $19,068

Cash invested: $61,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,308/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $220,542

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $115	+0% $39	+5% $-38	+10% $-114
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-39	+0% $39	+5% $117	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $95	base $39	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,136
• Closing costs: $6,616
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.14mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.31mi
316 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,095	$0.82	45d	1	0.33mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.35mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.36mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.36mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	0d	1	0.37mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.41mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.43mi
524 Barbary Coast Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	3.0	2552	$2,295	$0.90	0d	1	0.47mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2468	$2,095	$0.85	0d	1	0.93mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2399	$2,095	$0.87	6d	1	0.93mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.96mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	5d	1	1.06mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	1.09mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	18d	1	1.09mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,870	$0.98	0d	1	1.15mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	1.23mi
201 Katie Elder Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	2418	$1,795	$0.74	0d	1	1.27mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	1.28mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.48mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,542 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,542 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,542 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,542 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,542 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $220,542 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,190 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,190 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 345-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $250,190 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,354
• − Property taxes: −$3,308
• − Insurance: −$1,103
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$6,416
• Taxable loss: −$3,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$778
• After-tax cash flow: $1,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B