164 Two Bits Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Land · 145 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $180/sqft · 13% below area Est $286k · 13% under $625/mo HOA · 31% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 6186763 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

Key facts

• Porch entry
• Dining room
• Great room

Tags

• PORCH ENTRY
• OPEN KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• DINING ROOM
• GREAT ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-537 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 847 students, 84% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.

Recommended offer $155,059 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.21%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,763
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -12.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $102,442
• Equity at exit: $225,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $329,631
• Equity at exit: $485,676

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,014/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$625
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $155,059

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-396	-5% $-467	+0% $-537	+5% $-608	+10% $-679
Rent	-10% $-696	-5% $-617	+0% $-537	+5% $-458	+10% $-379
Rate	-1.0pp $-411	-0.5pp $-474	base $-537	+0.5pp $-602	+1.0pp $-668

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	19d	1	0.16mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	1.13mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	6d	1	1.17mi
110 S Main St #104 Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	45d	1	1.21mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	1.27mi
204 Hall St Unit A Elgin, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$1,195	$1.31	0d	1	1.32mi
200 Maple Ln Elgin, TX	2.0	2.0	891	$1,400	$1.57	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $625 · $7,500/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $249,990 Pending 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,990 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,990 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-05-16
   price $249,990 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   MLS# 6186763 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

5. 2026-04-30
   price $269,990 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   MLS# 6186763 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

6. 2026-04-24
   price $281,195 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   MLS# 6186763 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

7. 2026-04-21
   price $291,195 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   MLS# 6186763 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

8. 2026-03-21
   price $284,990 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   MLS# 6186763 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

9. 2026-03-02
   price $279,990 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   MLS# 6186763 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

10. 2026-01-07
    listed $291,195 Active 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    MLS# 6186763 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,014 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,561/yr (+$297/mo · 351.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$1,014
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − HOA: −$7,500
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$10,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $249,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $269,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $281,195 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $291,195 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $284,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $279,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $291,195 Unlock MLS