17 Smith Rd · Winchester, TN 37398

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1997 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-wide home with a large yard just minutes from Tims Ford Lake and Tims Ford State Park! Enjoy peaceful living with plenty of outdoor space while being close to boating, fishing, hiking, and all that Winchester has to offer. The home is also prepped for a wood-burning stove, featuring a tiled platform and chimney outlet already in place. Great opportunity for a primary home, weekend getaway, or investment property

Key facts

• Boating
• Large yard
• Outdoor space

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• CLOSE TO TIMS FORD LAKE
• CLOSE TO TIMS FORD STATE PARK
• BOATING
• FISHING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Carport (1 space); 1 covered parking space (total 1)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Water available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One story; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven, Range, Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Oven, Range, Microwave; Crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#149 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities D-.
• Franklin County (town): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #111 of 139 in TN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Broadview Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #319 of 952 statewide, top 37%, 238 students, 0% FRL); Franklin Co High School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #255 of 332 statewide, top 77%, 1,180 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.57%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $29,353
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $80,113
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37398

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $80,000 Active
19. 2007-02-16
    soldstatus $85,000
20. 2003-09-11
    soldstatus $28,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $7,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,708
• After-tax cash flow: $6,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 4701290
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,108
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9094
• State rank: #111 of 139 in TN

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #13341

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,712

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,858 people
• By 2030: 43,540 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 44,623 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 45,523 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 48,954 · +14.2%
• By 2100: 50,170 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.03%
• Current HPI: 333.839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+176.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $80,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $28,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $129 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.