3909 Reche Rd #82 · Fallbrook, CA 92028

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,799 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $306k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduced! Triplewide that has a Open Floor plan with Vaulted Ceilings, Extremely large living room with a fireplace, Skylights, Den, Ceiling Fans throughout, Laundry room with storage space, Fenced yard has room for children, pets and terrace garden. Room For The Whole Family. There is a shed, the covered carport is long enough for 3 cars. All reasonable offers will be considered.

Key facts

• Massive living room
• Private backyard
• Soaking tub

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MASSIVE LIVING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE MASTER SUITE
• SOAKING TUB
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot described as 0–1 unit per acre
• Financial info: Land lease applies
• HOA & community: Part of an association with pool, clubhouse and spa; association rules apply; Located in the Valley Oaks park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Standard electric service; Natural gas connected; Public/district water; Public sewer; Electricity and water connected
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (model OAK 3839-CT); Entry on level 1; Triple body type; Mobile home remains in place
• Construction: Composition roof; Built year per public records; Mobile home dimensions approximately 35' x 52'; Foundation information not provided
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Wood fencing; Association pool; Association spa; One shed on property; Paved road access; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Microwave; Gas range; Electric oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Bathtub and shower; shower in tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Fireplace; Central cooling
• Interior features: Front entry; One-level layout; Association spa
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $884 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.4% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $270k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.03%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,830
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3909 Reche Rd #60	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-5%)	6mo	$290,000	$170	86
3909 Reche Rd #33	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-2%)	19mo	$295,000	$168	80
3909 Reche Rd #30	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-7%)	21mo	$398,000	$238	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,378
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $35,332
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92028

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $884

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4131 Cyprus Island Ct Fallbrook, CA	2.0	2.0	1432	$3,195	$2.23	1d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $270,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,341
• − Management: −$3,341
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable income: $6,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,609
• After-tax cash flow: $8,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallbrook Union High
• NCES district ID: 0613530
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,644
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #4025
• State rank: #183 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fallbrook

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #27057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 52,227
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,227
• Household income: $111,290
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.50%
• Current HPI: 320.7162
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+38.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2021-01-29 Sold (MLS) $149,900 CRMLS
• 2020-12-30 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-12-17 Price Changed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2020-11-01 Price Changed $164,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-06 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-06-24 Price Changed $184,000 SDMLS
• 2020-06-23 Price Changed $184,000 CRMLS
• 2020-04-07 Listed $194,900 CRMLS