8811 Canoga Park Ave #512 · Los Angeles, CA 91304

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition Est $210k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A BIT OF TLC AND YOU’VE GOT YOUR HOME SWEET HOME! OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH ABUNDANT SPACE FEATURES INCLUDE: A bright welcome into the grand living room which flows seamlessly into the formal dining room, exhibiting a lovely built-in display with buffet. The roomy kitchen with generous counter space and cabinetry invites more than one cook to this kitchen. Built in Shelving flanks the wall of the Large Den/(Bonus) Room with a welcomed purpose. Primary and Guest Bedrooms are abundantly spacious. Guest Bedroom has a large walk-in closet. The Primary Bath presents with a soaking tub, dual vanities, while the guest Bath has a large double walk in shower. The Enclosed Porch/Sun Room. Can al

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Built in display
• Large den

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BUILT IN DISPLAY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• LARGE DEN
• SOAKING TUB
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Canoga Mobile Estates; Pets allowed with breed restrictions
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,111.11
• HOA & community: Senior community; Land lease (park) with monthly amount

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered carport spaces (attached); 2 garage spaces; Total of 4 parking spaces; Paved road access; Located in Canoga Mobile Estates
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home (24 ft x 60 ft); Mobile home remains on site; Has a view; Urban community
• Construction: Vinyl construction material; Metal/other roof; Quake bracing and pier jacks foundation; Property condition: repairs cosmetic
• Exterior features: In-ground community pool; Shed (2); Vinyl skirt

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas range
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Sliding glass door(s); Closed-circuit TV; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector; Resident manager; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.57%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8811 Canoga Ave #106	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$190,000	$132	93
8811 Canoga Ave #208	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	8mo	$205,000	$146	89
8811 Canoga Ave #383	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$165,000	$123	87
8801 Eton Ave #53	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$193,500	$134	85
8811 Canoga Ave #371	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	6mo	$220,000	$164	84
8901 Eton Ave #5	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$190,125	$132	79
8811 Canoga Ave #543	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+9%)	5mo	$180,000	$115	76
8801 Eton #99 #99	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	0mo	$273,000	$178	75
8801 Eton Ave #123	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	7mo	$382,201	$255	70
8800 Eton Ave #39	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$155,000	$115	67
8801 Eton #131	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	8mo	$223,000	$172	64
11401 Topanga #73	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,265 (-12%)	6mo	$229,000	$181	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $42,495
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $107,549
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Los Angeles: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+22

LARSO + JCEO 2023; relocation for substantial remodel evictions.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91304

• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $446/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $1,277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8750 Topanga Canyon Blvd Unit 6 Canoga Park, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,195	$2.44	16d	1	0.17mi
8601 International Ave Canoga Park, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	980	$2,300	$2.35	24d	2	0.27mi
21350 Parthenia St Unit 108 Canoga Park, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,495	$2.50	16d	1	0.29mi
21731 Bryant St Canoga Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,150	$2.96	12d	1	0.29mi
8719 Variel Ave Canoga Park, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,532	$2.67	7d	3	0.43mi
21040 Parthenia St #29 Canoga Park, CA	2.0	2.5	1065	$2,700	$2.54	43d	1	0.50mi
21031 Parthenia St Canoga Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$2,584	$2.86	2d	9	0.50mi
8865 Independence Ave #26 Canoga Park, CA	3.0	2.5	1651	$3,595	$2.18	43d	1	0.50mi
9101 Topanga Canyon Blvd Chatsworth, CA	2.0	2.0	1022	$2,620	$2.56	7d	1	0.55mi
8710 Independence Ave #301 Canoga Park, CA	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,250	$1.98	24d	1	0.57mi
21000 Bryant St #6 Canoga Park, CA	2.0	2.0	992	$2,600	$2.62	24d	1	0.59mi
8414 Owensmouth Ave Canoga Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1341	$3,995	$2.98	24d	1	0.59mi
8761 De Soto Ave Canoga Park, CA	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1025	$2,920	$2.85	2d	8	0.65mi
20909 Parthenia St Canoga Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	745	$2,438	$3.27	1d	6	0.66mi
8409 Topanga Canyon Blvd West Hills, CA	3.0	3.0	1144	$5,000	$4.37	43d	1	0.70mi
8700 De Soto Ave Canoga Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,695	$3.48	1d	2	0.70mi
21019 Hackney St Canoga Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1590	$4,200	$2.64	3d	1	0.73mi
21535 Roscoe Blvd Canoga Park, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1309	$3,024	$2.31	1d	3	0.73mi
21501 Roscoe Blvd Canoga Park, CA	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,775	$2.24	2d	2	0.74mi
20957 Community St Unit A Canoga Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1002	$3,200	$3.19	24d	1	0.81mi
21809 Lanark St Canoga Park, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	900	$1,920	$2.13	20d	2	0.91mi
20645 Roscoe Blvd Unit E Winnetka, CA	3.0	3.0	1586	$4,800	$3.03	43d	1	1.18mi
9733 Topanga Canyon Blvd Chatsworth, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1204	$2,935	$2.44	2d	4	1.19mi
22337 Cantara St Canoga Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1431	$3,950	$2.76	43d	1	1.19mi
20432 Gresham St Winnetka, CA	3.0	2.0	1313	$3,795	$2.89	43d	1	1.22mi
7900 Topanga Canyon Blvd #15 Canoga Park, CA	2.0	3.0	1558	$3,550	$2.28	2d	1	1.24mi
8605 Delco Ave Winnetka, CA	3.0	3.0	1130	$4,200	$3.72	43d	1	1.25mi
8603 Delco Ave Winnetka, CA	3.0	2.5	1130	$3,500	$3.10	43d	1	1.25mi
7948 De Soto Ave Canoga Park, CA	3.0	3.0	1383	$3,750	$2.71	43d	1	1.28mi
7826 Topanga Canyon Blvd Canoga Park, CA	2.0	2.0	920	$2,675	$2.91	24d	2	1.28mi
8015 McNulty Ave Winnetka, CA	3.0	2.0	1447	$4,250	$2.94	3d	1	1.32mi
8220 Kentland Ave West Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1370	$4,500	$3.28	43d	1	1.34mi
8220 Kentland Ave West Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1370	$4,500	$3.28	24d	1	1.34mi
21700 Septo St Unit D108 Chatsworth, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,495	$2.08	43d	1	1.37mi
21700 Septo St Chatsworth, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,545	$2.12	15d	4	1.37mi
21700 Septo St Unit D207 Chatsworth, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,595	$2.16	16d	1	1.37mi
7744 Vassar Ave Canoga Park, CA	2.0	2.5	1142	$3,750	$3.28	24d	1	1.38mi
7800 Topanga Canyon Blvd Canoga Park, CA	2.0	2.0	1036	$2,500	$2.41	24d	1	1.40mi
9950 California 27 Unit 26 Chatsworth, CA	3.0	2.5	1474	$3,550	$2.41	19d	1	1.41mi
9950 California 27 Unit 26 Chatsworth, CA	3.0	2.5	1474	$3,550	$2.41	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $185,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,500 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,500 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,500 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,500 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,500 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,500 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,500 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,500 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,500 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,500 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $189,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $446 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$960/yr (+$80/mo · 215.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$446
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,869
• − Management: −$2,869
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $13,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,122
• After-tax cash flow: $12,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate exterior repairs and some interior touch-ups to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — Significant weathering and discoloration
• Minor interior walls — Some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both paint interior walls — Improves interior appearance and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant weathering and discoloration	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior walls · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — Improves interior appearance and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Angeles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,403
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4875
• State rank: #223 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Angeles

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #9237

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Angeles, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 3,838,149
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,474
• Household income: $90,007
• Rent vs Own: 49.6% rent · 50.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2821.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 32% Asian 17% Two or more races 11% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 8% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -805.65%
• Current HPI: 351.4216
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.21%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $189,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+24.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $446 · +24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.