Chestnut Plan · Sandston, VA 23150

$272,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · Condo · 251 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

Key facts

• Open-concept layouts
• Covered entry
• Listed 251 days

Tags

• TOWNHOME-STYLE LIVING
• COVERED ENTRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTS
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHENS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• REAR-FACING LIVING AREAS

🏗️ New construction. The $272,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,367.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Sandston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#92 in VA, #3,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,873 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,367
• List price: $272,990
• Delta: -2.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-53,040
• Equity at exit: $41,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-56,096
• Equity at exit: $24,155

Cash invested: $78,223 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23150

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,465
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,190/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,444

Max offer price $261,634

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $-26	+0% $-123	+5% $-219	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-213	+0% $-123	+5% $-32	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-51	base $-123	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,842
• Closing costs: $8,381
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
237 Orange Blossom Run Sandston, VA	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,300	$1.80	17d	1	0.19mi
214 Greenpark Rd Sandston, VA	3.0	3.0	1318	$2,050	$1.56	2d	1	0.38mi
2230 E Nine Mile Rd Sandston, VA	4.0	1.5	1400	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,990 Active 251 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,990 Active 250 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,990 Active 249 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,990 Active 248 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 246 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,990 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,990 Active 241 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $272,990 Active 240 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $272,990 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,990 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,990 Active 235 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,990 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,990 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-02-01
    price $272,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

15. 2026-01-13
    price $269,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

16. 2025-11-07
    price $264,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

17. 2025-11-07
    price $274,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

18. 2025-11-07
    price $264,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

19. 2025-11-02
    price $274,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

20. 2025-10-31
    price $259,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

21. 2025-10-28
    price $269,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

22. 2025-10-26
    price $274,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

23. 2025-10-24
    price $279,990 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

24. 2025-10-10
    listed $283,990 Active 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    The Beech and Chestnut are thoughtfully designed one-over-one multi-family homes that offer townhome-style living at an attainable price point. The Beech, located on the lower level, and the Chestnut, on the upper level with flexible two or three-bedroom options, share an inviting covered entry. Both homes feature open-concept layouts with great rooms flowing into well appointed kitchens complete with islands and stainless-steel appliances. The homes prioritize livability with rear-facing living areas for privacy, outdoor spaces (patio for Beech, deck for Chestnut), generous storage solutions, and luxurious owner's suites featuring walk-in closets and spa-like bathrooms. Charming exterior details like Board and Batten siding create curb appeal while maintaining affordability. Available with either 2x4 or 2x6 construction, these homes deliver smart design and modern amenities in an efficient, value-driven package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,649
• − Property taxes: −$4,190
• − Insurance: −$1,397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$8,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,510
• After-tax cash flow: $40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained and thoughtfully designed condo is move-in ready with modern finishes and a good condition score. It offers a good return on investment with potential for further updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the overall appearance and appeal of the home.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and functionality of the bathrooms.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more energy-efficient or high-end appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the curb appeal and overall aesthetic of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the overall appearance and appeal of the home. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and functionality of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more energy-efficient or high-end appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the curb appeal and overall aesthetic of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Sandston

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #3000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sandston, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 12,544
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 12,544
• Household income: $79,050
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 311.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.68%
• Current HPI: 296.353
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-10 Listed $283,990 Zillow