54962 Quince Rd · Chain-O-Lakes, IN 46628

$145,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1925 0.55 ac lot Est $182k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * Unapproved short sale * * * Looking for that peaceful country feel while staying close to town conveniences. Check out this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home situated on a spacious 0.5+ acre lot perfect for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or simply enjoying wide-open space. Step inside to find a warm and welcoming main floor featuring main-floor laundry for convenience and a functional layout ready for your personal touch. The practically finished basement adds valuable extra living space great for a family room, entertainment area, hobby space, or a home gym. * * * One offer received * * * Still accepting all offers Important updates include a new well tank installed in

Key facts

• Main floor laundry
• New well tank
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• PRACTICALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• NEW WELL TANK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer
• Home design: Single family residence, site-built; 2 stories
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Second garage (additional structure); Lot roughly 119 x 218 (0.55 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Main level has 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Water softener (owned); Electric range; Partial, partially finished basement; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.4% in Chain-O-Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Bend Community School Corporation (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #284 of 301 in IN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #989 of 994 statewide, top 100%, 411 students, 90% FRL); Dickinson Fine Arts Academy (math 0% / reading 5%, grade F, #329 of 330 statewide, top 100%, 449 students, 86% FRL); Washington High School (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #315 of 369 statewide, top 86%, 834 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 754 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (460 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.91%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,896
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54865 Edgewater Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-8%)	3mo	$70,000	$67	68
55050 Fresno St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-7%)	9mo	$169,000	$159	62
26288 W Edison Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-13%)	8mo	$129,900	$130	61
25914 Edison Rd	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+8%)	10mo	$300,000	$244	50
26096 Lakewood Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-10%)	11mo	$206,000	$201	41
26933 Early Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-13%)	17mo	$216,600	$217	40
25994 Lakewood Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-4%)	23mo	$130,000	$118	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,874
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $38,275
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46628

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,878/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $241	+0% $200	+5% $159	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $141	+0% $200	+5% $259	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $237	base $200	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $145,000 Pending 192 DOM
2. 2025-11-24
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-11-21
   price $145,000
4. 2025-11-18
   listed $165,000 Active
5. 2019-06-18
   soldstatus $100,000
6. 2019-04-19
   listed $99,900
7. 2018-04-09
   listed $115,000
8. 2018-03-08
   listed $100,000
9. 2017-05-26
   listed $114,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,878 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,878 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,878
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $77
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19
• After-tax cash flow: $2,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Bend Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810290
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,935
• Composite: 14.21/100
• National rank: #9452
• State rank: #284 of 301 in IN

Livability — Chain-O-Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Joseph County · 189,048 people
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,685
• Household income: $61,759
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1024.0

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 273,186 people
• By 2030: 273,594 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 271,641 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 269,187 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 263,136 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 245,659 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.1pp · 2024: 1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+17.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.47%
• Current HPI: 202.112
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.78%
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+27.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-24 Contingent — IRMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $145,000 IRMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $165,000 IRMLS
• 2019-06-18 Sold (MLS) $100,000 IRMLS
• 2019-04-19 Listed $99,900 IRMLS
• 2018-04-09 Listed $115,000 IRMLS
• 2018-03-08 Listed $100,000 IRMLS
• 2017-05-26 Listed $114,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,878 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.