15123 NE 38th Ct · Reddick, FL 32113

$34,321

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1999 0.25 ac lot $22/sqft · 75% below area ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home on a private 1/4 acre lot in Citra. The home needs extensive repairs and updates. Electricity is not on currently. CASH ONLY! Buyer is responsible for any debris, trash, furniture, etc that is left on the property. The seller has no knowledge of the condition of the home. SUBJECT TO EXPIRED PERMIT #2010030164

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured Home; Zoning: R4; Orientation: Faces west; Lot area: 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre; Unfurnished; Universal property ID available
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Tax information not included per instructions
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone service available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a fixer-condition property
• Exterior features: Dirt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 90 x 120; Lot roughly 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features specified; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.0% vs local median 1.7% in Reddick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#845 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $238 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,291 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.98%
• DSCR: 6.20
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,000
• List price: $34,321
• Delta: -74.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $46,227
• Equity at exit: $5,117

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.16×
• Total profit: $107,215
• Equity at exit: $2,967

Cash invested: $9,610 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32113

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$43 /mo · $515/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $459

Max offer price $34,321

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,580
• Closing costs: $1,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,321 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,321 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,321 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $34,321 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,123 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,123 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,123 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,123 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,123 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,123 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 350-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $39,123 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,002 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,002 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,002 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,002 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,002 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $54,321 312-char remark
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $74,123 Active 312-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,923
• − Property taxes: −$515
• − Insurance: −$1,674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,427
• − Management: −$1,427
• − Depreciation: −$998
• Taxable income: $9,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,369
• After-tax cash flow: $7,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Reddick

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #845
• US rank: #21164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,382

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.68%
• Current HPI: 284.1669
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-53.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $34,321 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $39,123 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $44,002 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $54,321 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $74,123 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+42.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,728 · +17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.