2641 Niles St · Hillcrest, CA 93305

$550,000

None bd · None ba · 3,320 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1960 6,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Great income producing property, all units are rented. We have four 1 bed, 1 bath and two 2 bed, 1 bath units. Six units all together. Ideal 1031 exchange property. You Snooze You Lose !!

Key facts

• 6,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 83 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual property operating data available; Price per unit approximately $91,666.67
• Financial info: 6 total units; Annual gross income approximately $45,928; Annual net income approximately $34,000; Total annual expenses approximately $12,000; Income and expenses reported as actual; Vacancy factor set at 2.00%; Exchange eligible; Owner/other financing (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer service; Propane/LP gas available
• Home design: 2-story building; Occupant type: tenants
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Multi-family zoning; Lot area approximately 0.1511 acres; Cross street: Camino Sierra

Interior

• Bedrooms: Combination of 1- and 2-bedroom units (see unit mix)
• Bathrooms: Single-bath units
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tenant-occupied multi-unit property; Actual income and expense data available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a multifamily listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $550k).
• Recommended offer: $517k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.8% in Hillcrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horace Mann Elementary (845 students, 93% FRL); Paul L. Cato Middle (629 students, 57% FRL); East Bakersfield High (reading 75%, 2,421 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,547/mo this rent would consume 182% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 2376% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $442k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $516,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.06%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,841
• List price: $550,000
• Delta: 97.24%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $11,049
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $220,857
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93305

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 40.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,547 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$896 /mo · $10,756/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,375
• Net cashflow: $1,162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,076

Max offer price $550,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,474	-5% $1,318	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,007	+10% $851
Rent	-10% $645	-5% $904	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,421	+10% $1,680
Rate	-1.0pp $1,439	-0.5pp $1,302	base $1,162	+0.5pp $1,020	+1.0pp $875

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,264
▸ 4× units	1	1	$4,280
Total (6 units)			$6,547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1308 Flower St Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	3432	$1,475	$0.43	4d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   status Active
3. 2026-04-06
   historical Active - Contingent
4. 2026-03-03
   status Active
5. 2026-02-26
   historical Active - Contingent
6. 2026-02-21
   listed $550,000 Active
7. 2024-08-07
   historical $875
8. 2024-07-30
   listed $875
9. 2023-09-24
   historical $850
10. 2023-09-15
    listed $850
11. 2023-09-11
    historical $850
12. 2023-09-05
    listed $975
13. 2023-08-31
    historical $975
14. 2023-08-30
    listed $975
15. 2023-08-24
    historical $975
16. 2023-08-05
    listed $975
17. 2023-07-31
    historical
18. 2023-07-28
    listed
19. 2023-07-21
    historical
20. 2023-07-20
    listed
21. 2021-03-16
    status Pending 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Great income producing property, all units are rented. We have four 1 bed, 1 bath and two 2 bed, 1 bath units. Six units all together. Ideal 1031 exchange property. You Snooze You Lose !!

22. 2021-03-08
    soldstatus $442,000 Sold 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Great income producing property, all units are rented. We have four 1 bed, 1 bath and two 2 bed, 1 bath units. Six units all together. Ideal 1031 exchange property. You Snooze You Lose !!

23. 2021-03-08
    soldstatus $442,000

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Great income producing property, all units are rented. We have four 1 bed, 1 bath and two 2 bed, 1 bath units. Six units all together. Ideal 1031 exchange property. You Snooze You Lose !!

24. 2020-11-15
    listed $442,000 Active 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Great income producing property, all units are rented. We have four 1 bed, 1 bath and two 2 bed, 1 bath units. Six units all together. Ideal 1031 exchange property. You Snooze You Lose !!

25. 2019-08-28
    soldstatus $360,000
26. 2009-08-31
    price $179,000 108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    Drive by only for viewing the property. Please place all offers subject to inspection. This is a short sale.

27. 2009-08-28
    soldstatus $180,000 108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    Drive by only for viewing the property. Please place all offers subject to inspection. This is a short sale.

28. 2009-08-28
    soldstatus $180,000

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    Drive by only for viewing the property. Please place all offers subject to inspection. This is a short sale.

29. 2009-08-14
    historical 108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    Drive by only for viewing the property. Please place all offers subject to inspection. This is a short sale.

30. 2009-04-27
    listed $180,000 108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    Drive by only for viewing the property. Please place all offers subject to inspection. This is a short sale.

31. 2005-09-15
    price $359,000
32. 2005-09-15
    soldstatus $380,000
33. 2005-09-15
    soldstatus $380,000
34. 2005-08-09
    historical
35. 2005-08-03
    listed $380,000
36. 1991-04-03
    soldstatus $63,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,756 · $896/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,756 · $896/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$10,756
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,285
• − Management: −$6,285
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable income: $5,679
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,363
• After-tax cash flow: $12,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hillcrest

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hillcrest, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,714
• Household income: $43,244
• Rent vs Own: 65.8% rent · 34.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2376.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 18% White 16% Black 5% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Dutch 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 54%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.24%
• Current HPI: 424.6051
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.79%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+766.1% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2026-02-26 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $550,000 GEMLS
• 2024-08-07 Rental Removed $875 RENT.
• 2024-07-30 Listed for Rent $875 RENT.
• 2023-09-24 Rental Removed $850 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-15 Listed for Rent $850 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-11 Rental Removed $850 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-05 Listed for Rent $975 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-31 Rental Removed $975 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-30 Listed for Rent $975 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-24 Rental Removed $975 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-05 Listed for Rent $975 APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-31 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-28 Listed for Rent — APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-21 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-20 Listed for Rent — APPFOLIO
• 2021-03-16 Pending — GEMLS
• 2021-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $442,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-08 Sold (MLS) $442,000 GEMLS
• 2020-11-15 Listed $442,000 GEMLS
• 2019-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-31 Price Changed $179,000 GEMLS
• 2009-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-28 Sold (MLS) $180,000 GEMLS
• 2009-08-14 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2009-04-27 Listed $180,000 GEMLS
• 2005-09-15 Price Changed $359,000 GEMLS
• 2005-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-15 Sold (MLS) $380,000 GEMLS
• 2005-08-09 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2005-08-03 Listed $380,000 GEMLS
• 1991-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,756 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.