Esparanza Plan · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$341,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,167 sqft · SingleFamily · 386 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home offers open spaces, smart design, and flexible options to fit your lifestyle. From the welcoming great room to the private owner's suite, the Esperanza makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting.

Key facts

• Open spaces
• Flexible options
• Welcoming great room

Tags

• OPEN SPACES
• SMART DESIGN
• FLEXIBLE OPTIONS
• WELCOMING GREAT ROOM
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $341,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $345,220.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $341k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-506/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 386 days — a 12% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,656 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 386 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,220
• List price: $341,490
• Delta: -1.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14021 Baikal Manor Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,196 (+1%)	2mo	$334,990	$153	90
14005 Baikal Manor Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,196 (+1%)	2mo	$354,990	$162	89
13913 Baikal Manor Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,144 (-1%)	2mo	$339,990	$159	84
13717 Blue Breaker Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,188 (+1%)	0mo	$380,900	$174	78
14315 Freeboard Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+1%)	0mo	$349,900	$159	76
2901 Fair Wind Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,160 (-0%)	1mo	$380,000	$176	73
13124 Pinnacle Beach Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+3%)	1mo	$332,990	$149	64
13921 Baikal Manor Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-14%)	1mo	$329,990	$176	64
2909 Fair Wind Ln	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,415 (+11%)	0mo	$411,900	$171	58
13123 Pinnacle Beach Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-4%)	1mo	$317,990	$153	57
14325 Santo Park Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,091 (-4%)	2mo	$719,000	$344	56
2905 Fair Wind Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-15%)	1mo	$359,900	$195	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-58,580
• Equity at exit: $51,473

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-54,286
• Equity at exit: $29,848

Cash invested: $96,662 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 234 active · 95 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.7 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $353,244 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,967 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,810
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,178/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,020

Max offer price $339,120

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $77	+0% $-42	+5% $-161	+10% $-281
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-159	+0% $-42	+5% $75	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $46	base $-42	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,305
• Closing costs: $10,357
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.26mi
3114 Freeboard Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$3,000	$1.33	0d	1	0.29mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	3.5	1832	$2,650	$1.45	0d	1	0.97mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	0d	2	0.99mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	134d	1	0.99mi
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	2411	$3,200	$1.33	109d	1	1.06mi
13017 Oleander Bay Ln Texas City, TX	5.0	3.5	2959	$2,850	$0.96	5d	1	1.07mi
13322 Sea Breeze Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	2051	$2,595	$1.27	34d	1	1.10mi
2122 Islawild Way Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,100	$1.14	0d	1	1.15mi
2602 Arbor Edge Xing Texas City, TX	4.0	3.0	2204	$2,700	$1.23	0d	1	1.32mi
13025 Dancing Reed Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,695	$1.28	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $341,490 Active 386 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $341,490 Active 385 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $341,490 Active 384 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $341,490 Active 383 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $341,490 Active 382 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $341,490 Active 380 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $341,490 Active 379 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $341,490 Active 378 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $341,490 Active 377 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $341,490 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $341,490 Active 375 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $341,490 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $341,490 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $341,490 Active 372 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $341,490 Active 371 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $341,490 Active 370 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $341,490 Active 369 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $341,490 Active 368 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $341,490 Active 367 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $341,490 Active 366 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $341,490 Active 365 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $341,490 Active 364 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $341,490 Active 363 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $341,490 Active 362 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $341,490 Active 361 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $341,490 Active 360 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $341,490 Active 359 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $341,490 Active 358 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $341,490 Active 357 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $341,490 Active 356 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $341,490 Active 355 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $341,490 Active 354 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $341,490 Active 353 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $341,490 Active 352 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $341,490 Active 351 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $341,490 Active 350 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $341,490 Active 349 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $341,490 Active 348 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $341,490 Active 347 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $341,490 Active 346 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $341,490 Active 345 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $341,490 Active 344 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $341,490 Active 343 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $341,490 Active 342 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $341,490 Active 341 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $341,490 Active 340 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $341,490 Active 339 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $341,490 Active 338 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $341,490 Active 337 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $341,490 Active 336 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,338
• − Property taxes: −$5,178
• − Insurance: −$1,726
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,848
• − Management: −$2,848
• − Depreciation: −$10,043
• Taxable loss: −$6,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,532
• After-tax cash flow: $1,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home offers a good condition with modern amenities and a welcoming design, ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938
• Household income: $96,284
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $339,490 Zillow
• 2025-10-18 Listed $338,990 Zillow