3016 Beechnut Ave · Medford, NY 11763

$500,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1965 8,276 sqft lot $381/sqft · 16% below area Est $595k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely Home With Pride Of Ownership Throughout The Years. Room For Mom Or Possible Apartment With Proper Permits. Yard And Landscape Are Well Maintained. Central Air. Mud Room. Outside Entertainment Patio For Entertainment Needs. Easy Access To Long Island Rail Road And Long Island Expressway. Close To All Stores And Restaurants., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private off-street parking; Driveway; Parking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric service by PSEG; Cable available; Phone available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Aluminum siding, brick and frame construction
• Exterior features: Basketball hoop; Shed(s); Back yard fencing; Sprinklers in front and rear; Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-552 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $403k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $408k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $403k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#502 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Medford Elementary School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #289 of 2,108 statewide, top 15%, 451 students, 42% FRL); Oregon Middle School (reading 75%, 592 students, 54% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $500k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $402,555 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,251
• List price: $500,000
• Delta: -16.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1300 Race Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (+2%)	6mo	$510,000	$380	79
2905 Beechnut Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,255 (-4%)	6mo	$525,000	$418	70
3003 Watch Hill Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,291 (-2%)	9mo	$550,000	$426	68
2401 Race Ave	0.51mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (-3%)	6mo	$565,000	$444	61
3114 Falcon Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,350 (+3%)	9mo	$550,000	$407	61
49 Country Rd	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,382 (+5%)	5mo	$1,175,000	$850	61
3019 Sipp Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,384 (+5%)	1mo	$552,000	$399	58
3103 New London Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (+15%)	9mo	$570,000	$378	54
1902 Race Ave	0.29mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (+15%)	4mo	$639,000	$424	54
3102 Watch Hill Ave	0.26mi	4/1.5	1,500 (+14%)	10mo	$583,500	$389	54
2905 Heather Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,337 (+2%)	8mo	$490,000	$366	51
2700 Falcon Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-9%)	2mo	$500,000	$417	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-115,896
• Equity at exit: $74,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-145,112
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11763

• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$944 /mo · $11,332/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$857
• Net cashflow: $-552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,778

Max offer price $402,555

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-269	-5% $-410	+0% $-552	+5% $-693	+10% $-835
Rent	-10% $-874	-5% $-713	+0% $-552	+5% $-390	+10% $-229
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-424	base $-552	+0.5pp $-681	+1.0pp $-813

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3107 Gull Ave Medford, NY	3.0	1.0	1622	$3,900	$2.40	0d	1	0.54mi
182 Blue Ridge Dr Unit 182 Medford, NY	3.0	1.5	1296	$3,600	$2.78	45d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $500,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $500,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $500,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $500,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $500,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $500,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   listed $500,000 Active 1520-char remark
8. 2026-04-29
   historical $500,000 1520-char remark
9. 2018-09-14
   soldstatus $310,000
10. 2018-08-22
    soldstatus $310,000 Closed 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Lovely Home With Pride Of Ownership Throughout The Years. Room For Mom Or Possible Apartment With Proper Permits. Yard And Landscape Are Well Maintained. Central Air. Mud Room. Outside Entertainment Patio For Entertainment Needs. Easy Access To Long Island Rail Road And Long Island Expressway. Close To All Stores And Restaurants., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

11. 2018-06-07
    status Under Contract 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Lovely Home With Pride Of Ownership Throughout The Years. Room For Mom Or Possible Apartment With Proper Permits. Yard And Landscape Are Well Maintained. Central Air. Mud Room. Outside Entertainment Patio For Entertainment Needs. Easy Access To Long Island Rail Road And Long Island Expressway. Close To All Stores And Restaurants., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

12. 2018-05-15
    price $315,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Lovely Home With Pride Of Ownership Throughout The Years. Room For Mom Or Possible Apartment With Proper Permits. Yard And Landscape Are Well Maintained. Central Air. Mud Room. Outside Entertainment Patio For Entertainment Needs. Easy Access To Long Island Rail Road And Long Island Expressway. Close To All Stores And Restaurants., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

13. 2018-05-09
    listed $299,999 New 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Lovely Home With Pride Of Ownership Throughout The Years. Room For Mom Or Possible Apartment With Proper Permits. Yard And Landscape Are Well Maintained. Central Air. Mud Room. Outside Entertainment Patio For Entertainment Needs. Easy Access To Long Island Rail Road And Long Island Expressway. Close To All Stores And Restaurants., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

14. 1994-06-23
    soldstatus $102,000
15. 1989-02-08
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,332 · $944/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,332 · $944/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$11,332
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,917
• − Management: −$3,917
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$15,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,662
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — Medford

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #8793

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medford, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,973
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,973
• Household income: $120,783
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -531.78%
• Current HPI: 379.1499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+367.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-22 Sold (MLS) $310,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-15 Price Changed $315,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-09 Listed $299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 1989-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,332 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.