911 NM 516 · Flora Vista, NM 87410

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Other · 301 Days on market

Built 1993 1.21 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

122' of Hwy Frontage in between Flora Vista and Aztec This one owner 1993 3 BR 2 BA, Fleetwood MH . .. this property has potential, the foundation will have to be replaced. .. 1.21 acres with additional set up for additional MH, RV or shop site makes this a unique property for multiple uses. Mudroom and Carport at the rear of the home as well as a front porch. The well on property has not been used for several years. 24 hour advance notice for showing appointments, please. REC possible.

Key facts

• Rv or shop site
• Front porch
• Carport

Tags

• 1.21 ACRES
• ADDITIONAL SET UP FOR MH
• RV OR SHOP SITE
• MUDROOM
• CARPORT
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#221 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.01%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,720
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $24,007
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87410

• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $338/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,218

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $394	+0% $347	+5% $112	+10% $55
Rent	-10% $216	-5% $282	+0% $347	+5% $412	+10% $478
Rate	-1.0pp $430	-0.5pp $389	base $347	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $165,000 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   122' of Hwy Frontage in between Flora Vista and Aztec This one owner 1993 3 BR 2 BA, Fleetwood MH . .. this property has potential, the foundation will have to be replaced. .. 1.21 acres with additional set up for additional MH, RV or shop site makes this a unique property for multiple uses. Mudroom and Carport at the rear of the home as well as a front porch. The well on property has not been used for several years. 24 hour advance notice for showing appointments, please. REC possible.

2. 2026-03-17
   status Active 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   122' of Hwy Frontage in between Flora Vista and Aztec This one owner 1993 3 BR 2 BA, Fleetwood MH . .. this property has potential, the foundation will have to be replaced. .. 1.21 acres with additional set up for additional MH, RV or shop site makes this a unique property for multiple uses. Mudroom and Carport at the rear of the home as well as a front porch. The well on property has not been used for several years. 24 hour advance notice for showing appointments, please. REC possible.

3. 2026-03-08
   historical 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   122' of Hwy Frontage in between Flora Vista and Aztec This one owner 1993 3 BR 2 BA, Fleetwood MH . .. this property has potential, the foundation will have to be replaced. .. 1.21 acres with additional set up for additional MH, RV or shop site makes this a unique property for multiple uses. Mudroom and Carport at the rear of the home as well as a front porch. The well on property has not been used for several years. 24 hour advance notice for showing appointments, please. REC possible.

4. 2026-02-06
   price $170,000 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   122' of Hwy Frontage in between Flora Vista and Aztec This one owner 1993 3 BR 2 BA, Fleetwood MH . .. this property has potential, the foundation will have to be replaced. .. 1.21 acres with additional set up for additional MH, RV or shop site makes this a unique property for multiple uses. Mudroom and Carport at the rear of the home as well as a front porch. The well on property has not been used for several years. 24 hour advance notice for showing appointments, please. REC possible.

5. 2026-01-27
   price $174,000 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   122' of Hwy Frontage in between Flora Vista and Aztec This one owner 1993 3 BR 2 BA, Fleetwood MH . .. this property has potential, the foundation will have to be replaced. .. 1.21 acres with additional set up for additional MH, RV or shop site makes this a unique property for multiple uses. Mudroom and Carport at the rear of the home as well as a front porch. The well on property has not been used for several years. 24 hour advance notice for showing appointments, please. REC possible.

6. 2025-07-22
   listed $179,000 Active 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   122' of Hwy Frontage in between Flora Vista and Aztec This one owner 1993 3 BR 2 BA, Fleetwood MH . .. this property has potential, the foundation will have to be replaced. .. 1.21 acres with additional set up for additional MH, RV or shop site makes this a unique property for multiple uses. Mudroom and Carport at the rear of the home as well as a front porch. The well on property has not been used for several years. 24 hour advance notice for showing appointments, please. REC possible.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $338 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$982/yr (+$82/mo · 290.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$338
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $3,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aztec Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500150
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 33.00%
• Median HH income: $50,522
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5328
• State rank: #12 of 29 in NM

Livability — Flora Vista

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #23714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flora Vista, NM
• Population (ZIP): 14,372

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Native American 12% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.31%
• Current HPI: 156.6284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $165,000 SJCMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — SJCMLS
• 2026-03-08 Delisted — SJCMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $170,000 SJCMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $174,000 SJCMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $179,000 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $338 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.