117 River St · Warrensburg, NY 12885

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1880 0.25 ac lot $177/sqft · at area comps Est $262k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Well maintained duplex in Warrensburg! Easy walk to anything in town!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1880

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 3 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Duplex; 1,408 living area (total); Lot approximately 0.25 acres (about 101 x 103 feet)
• Construction: Wood siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Garden; Frontage on the Schroon River

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two units each with 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating
• Interior features: Partial basement; Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-646/yr) — negative. Per door: $-27/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.6% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#823 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Warrensburg Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #552 of 755 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warrensburg Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 361 students, 58% FRL); Warrensburg Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 302 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $200,600 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,939
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -4.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Horicon Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,326 (-6%)	12mo	$180,000	$136	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $132,649
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $393,278
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12885

• Home prices YoY: 19.6%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 20.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,687/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $240,388

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $17	+0% $-54	+5% $-125	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-212	-5% $-133	+0% $-54	+5% $25	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $10	base $-54	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-184

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$2,006
Total (2 units)			$2,006

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $249,900 Active 69-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,687 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,455 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$768/yr (+$64/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,687
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrensburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629910
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,828
• Composite: 41.15/100
• National rank: #7424
• State rank: #552 of 755 in NY

Livability — Warrensburg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #823
• US rank: #15925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,531

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 60.30%
• Current HPI: 368.3803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $249,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,687 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.